The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has maintained the official exchange rate of the U.S. dollar at 44.81 UAH for June 16, 2023, indicating no change from the previous banking day. In contrast, the euro has experienced an increase, now valued at 52.03 UAH, reflecting a rise of 18 kopecks.
The stability of the dollar contrasts with the euro’s upward trend, which is influenced by external market factors. Experts predict that the dollar will fluctuate between 44.4 and 45.1 UAH on the interbank market in the near future.
According to Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank, the cash market could see the dollar’s value range from 44.3 to 45 UAH. He noted that demand for currency currently exceeds supply by approximately 10-15%. To maintain market equilibrium, the NBU may need to conduct currency interventions amounting to 850 to 900 million U.S. dollars weekly.
“This volume is indicative: the market is not in perfect balance, but it does not show signs of being out of control,” Lesovyi stated.
Regarding the euro, its value is more susceptible to external influences. Lesovyi mentioned that the expected euro-to-dollar exchange rate is between 1.15 and 1.18. Under this scenario, the euro in Ukraine could fluctuate between 51 and 52.5 UAH.
The situation in the Middle East remains a critical factor affecting the euro, as it impacts oil prices, investor sentiment, and the dynamics of major global currencies. Consequently, the euro may experience greater volatility than the dollar in the coming days, despite the relative stability of the Ukrainian currency market.
The National Bank of Ukraine has kept the dollar's exchange rate stable while the euro continues to rise, influenced by external factors. Experts predict fluctuations in both currencies amid ongoing market dynamics.