In a recent report directed to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Belarusian opposition leaders have raised concerns about significant changes in Belarus that may indicate a shift in its military posture. The document, authored by Pavel Latushko, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet, outlines eight key factors suggesting that Belarus is enhancing its military readiness.
1. Changes in Military Legislation
The report highlights that amendments to Belarus’s Constitution have stripped the country of its neutral and non-nuclear status. A military doctrine adopted in 2024 now permits preemptive strikes in the event of a “direct threat” and allows for military operations beyond its borders.
2. Military Capability Expansion
Since 2022, the number of contract soldiers in Belarus has reportedly increased by approximately 50%. The mobilization reserve is estimated at 289,000 personnel, and a Southern Operational Command is being established near the Ukrainian border.
3. Economic Shift Towards Military Focus
The document states that Belarus’s defense spending has quintupled over the last four years. It also notes a close integration of the Belarusian military-industrial complex with Russia, including the acquisition of thousands of new military units. “In 2024 alone, over 4,000 new military vehicles were added to the arsenal,” the report mentions.
4. Strengthened Military Cooperation with Russia
Indicators of closer ties with Russia include the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and the presence of the “Oreshnik” complex. Belarusian military personnel are also reportedly receiving training from Wagner Group instructors.
5. Societal Militarization
The report points to the construction of defensive structures along borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania, as well as the modernization of military infrastructure. There is a noted expansion of military training for youth, including mandatory military education in schools and participation in patriotic camps.
6. Civil Sector Preparedness for Wartime
New guidelines for the medical system regarding wartime operations have been introduced, with approximately 5,000 bomb shelters in Minsk undergoing inspections. Regular testing of warning systems is also being conducted, alongside the procurement of bulletproof vests for militia units.
7. Accumulation of Strategic Resources
The authors report an increase in mandatory reserves of petroleum products, now stored for up to 30 days, and an expanded list of civil vehicles that can be mobilized. Military transport columns are also being formed from civilian enterprises.
8. Ongoing Military Exercises
The report notes that Belarus continues to conduct large-scale military maneuvers in 2026. These exercises are believed to be aimed at testing mobilization mechanisms and maintaining a high state of readiness among security forces.
The National Anti-Crisis Management emphasized that the report sent to Ukraine not only lists observed trends but also includes recommendations to prevent potential escalations and curb further militarization in Belarus.
A report from Belarusian opposition leaders outlines significant military preparations in Belarus, including legislative changes and increased military spending. The document also provides recommendations for Ukraine to mitigate potential threats from Belarus.