The currency exchange landscape in Ukraine is undergoing notable changes, with banks adjusting their rates and the hryvnia experiencing a gradual decline. Recent increases in the dollar and euro prices have sparked discussions about the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) monetary strategy and its implications for the market.
In recent days, the dollar’s selling price in various banks has reached 45 UAH, with a noticeable gap between the official NBU rate and bank quotations, particularly for the euro, which stands at about one hryvnia.
Current Dollar Rates in Ukrainian Banks:
- PrivatBank: 45.05 UAH for cash, 45.04 UAH for card transactions.
- Oschadbank: 44.99 UAH in the mobile app, 45.10 UAH for cards.
- Monobank: 45.04 UAH.
- PUMB: 45.20 UAH for cash, 45 UAH for commercial transactions.
According to Taras Kozak, founder and president of the investment group UNIVER, the NBU has been implementing a policy of “managed flexibility” and “constructive uncertainty” for the past three years. This approach aims to prevent the market from predicting exchange rates, thereby reducing the potential for currency speculation that could harm both banks and consumers.
There are instances where demand on the interbank market decreases while the dollar’s price rises, or vice versa. This manipulation by the NBU is intended to confuse market participants and deter them from profiting from stable currency growth.
Should Investors Buy Dollars?
The NBU emphasizes that the returns on hryvnia-denominated instruments, such as deposits or government bonds (OVDP), should exceed the depreciation rates of the dollar. Investing in OVDP could yield a greater amount of currency upon maturity compared to simply holding dollars.
2026 Forecast
Kozak predicts that by the end of 2026, the dollar’s exchange rate against the hryvnia is unlikely to increase by more than 10%, with a more optimistic estimate of 7-8%. If the rate starts at 42 UAH at the beginning of the year, it is expected to remain below 46 UAH by year’s end. This is attributed to the NBU’s efforts to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments, discouraging mass currency purchases.
Short-Term Predictions
Given the NBU’s strategy of uncertainty, any forecasts for the upcoming weeks or months are deemed impractical.
Note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments carry risks, including the potential loss of capital. RBC-Ukraine is not responsible for financial decisions made based on this material. It is advisable to consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Ukrainian currency market is seeing rising dollar and euro rates, prompting discussions about the National Bank's monetary strategies. Experts suggest that while short-term forecasts are challenging, the dollar's growth is expected to remain limited through 2026.