The Ukrainian currency market is projected to remain stable in the upcoming week, from June 8 to June 14, despite ongoing military and energy-related risks. According to Taras Lesovyi, the director of financial markets and investment activities at Globus Bank, the situation remains manageable, and the hryvnia continues to be an attractive investment option for citizens.
Forecast Overview:
- Dollar Rate: The expected exchange rate for the dollar is between 44.2 and 44.7 UAH/USD on the interbank market, and 44.1 to 44.6 UAH/USD for cash transactions.
- Euro Rate: The euro is anticipated to range from 51 to 52.5 UAH/EUR, with broader fluctuations attributed to global euro/dollar dynamics.
- Daily Variations: Minimal daily fluctuations are expected, with interbank changes up to 0.15 UAH, commercial banks up to 0.2 UAH, and exchange points up to 0.3 UAH.
Lesovyi emphasizes that the market possesses sufficient safeguards, which means that risks such as attacks or energy issues do not automatically lead to sharp exchange rate fluctuations.
Factors Influencing Stability:
- Security Concerns: Rocket and drone attacks, or worsening conditions at the front, could increase demand for foreign currency.
- Energy Prices: Tensions in the Middle East are affecting oil and fuel prices, which could lead to additional costs and potential inflationary pressure on the Ukrainian economy.
Despite these risks, Lesovyi notes that there is no direct correlation between risk factors and currency spikes. Even if the cash market becomes volatile, this does not necessarily indicate a prolonged devaluation.
The exchange rates ultimately reflect the non-cash segment, where the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) plays a crucial role. The NBU employs a strategy of “managed flexibility” to mitigate excessive fluctuations and curb panic.
Investment Choices: Hryvnia vs. Foreign Currency
Despite a projected inflation rate of 9.4% for 2026, hryvnia-denominated instruments remain appealing. While foreign currency protects against exchange rate risks, it does not generate income. In contrast, deposits and government bonds (OVDP) offer tangible financial returns.
Deposits with terms ranging from six months to one year are currently the most advantageous, with potential yields reaching 17.5% annually.
This yield is supported by the NBU’s key interest rate, which is expected to remain at 15% until the second quarter of 2027, minimizing the likelihood of rapid declines in deposit rates.
Market Indicators for the Week:
- The difference between buying and selling rates is projected to be up to 0.15 UAH for the dollar on the interbank market, and up to 1 UAH for the dollar and 1.3 UAH for the euro in exchange offices.
- Weekly Fluctuations: Average weekly changes are not expected to exceed 1-1.5% from the starting rate.
- Market Disparities: The average difference between interbank and cash market rates is estimated to be around 0.1-0.15 UAH.
Disclaimer: This material is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments carry risks, including the potential for total capital loss. RBC Ukraine is not responsible for financial decisions made based on this material. It is advisable to consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Ukrainian currency market is expected to remain stable next week, with projected exchange rates for the dollar and euro showing minimal fluctuations. Despite ongoing risks, such as security concerns and energy price volatility, the hryvnia continues to be an attractive investment option for citizens.