Recent assessments indicate that Russia’s efforts to bolster its military through forced mobilization may not only fail to improve the situation on the battlefield but could also further degrade the quality of its armed forces.
Analysts have expressed skepticism regarding the effectiveness of a potential new wave of conscription, citing escalating personnel issues within the Russian military and logistical challenges in deploying troops to the front lines.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has pointed out that Russia faces the dual challenge of compensating for significant battlefield losses while simultaneously seeking new recruits for drone units and safeguarding rear areas from Ukrainian drone attacks.
In response to these pressures, the Kremlin is expanding its recruitment campaigns to include new demographics, notably students and women, who are being enlisted for roles in air defense systems and drone operations.
Despite these efforts, the pace of contract recruitment in Russia continues to decline, even as one-time bonuses for signing contracts have been increased.
Experts have raised concerns about the Russian military’s ability to effectively train personnel and drone operators. Should a large-scale mobilization occur, these existing challenges could worsen, negatively impacting the combat readiness of the forces.
Moreover, Ukrainian drone strikes are significantly hampering Russia’s ability to transfer personnel to the front lines and maintain supply lines and positions.
The ISW has also noted a decline in the effectiveness of Russia’s elite drone unit, Rubikon, which previously aided the military in achieving some advances on the front in late 2025. However, issues related to training and system overload have gradually diminished their operational capabilities.
According to ISW, the Kremlin is approaching a critical juncture where personnel shortages could emerge as a primary threat to the continuation of the conflict.
Russia's military faces significant recruitment and training challenges that may hinder its operational effectiveness on the battlefield. As personnel shortages loom, the Kremlin's strategies to bolster its forces are increasingly questioned.