Recent reports from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that Russia and Belarus are creating a narrative to legitimize drone strikes on Ukraine from Belarusian territory. The analysis follows statements made by Belarusian Security Council Secretary Alexander Wolfovich on May 26, who claimed that Belarusian forces recorded 116 attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the border in the past week.
Wolfovich asserted that some of these incursions were deliberate attempts to target Belarusian border infrastructure. According to ISW, Russia may leverage these reported incidents to justify using Belarus as a launch point for retaliatory strikes against Ukraine.
ISW’s report highlights that Belarus could enable Russia to conduct drone attacks on critical ground communication lines in western and northwestern Ukraine, which Russian drones currently struggle to hit accurately. The ability to operate from Belarus would allow Russian drones, including the Shahed and the less expensive Molniya models, to target the M-06 highway, a vital supply route connecting Poland to Ukraine, as well as the railway linking the two countries.
While Russian forces are already conducting strikes from their territory, launching drones from Belarus would enhance their accuracy against moving targets. Analysts note that Wolfovich’s statements, alongside recent warnings from Ukrainian officials, suggest that Russia is setting the stage for further military operations involving Belarus, particularly targeting strategically significant locations in western Ukraine.
Additionally, ISW pointed out that these comments from Wolfovich come amid concerns that Russia is pressuring Belarus to engage in operations against Ukraine or unspecified NATO states. However, the report emphasizes that a ground invasion from Belarus into Ukraine is unlikely, as ISW has not observed any significant buildup of Belarusian forces along the border that would indicate preparations for such an action. Furthermore, Russia lacks the necessary reserves to support Belarusian troops in a ground invasion.
Last week, Russia and Belarus conducted nuclear exercises, and Belarus is hosting the latest Russian missile system, capable of carrying nuclear weapons, which adds to the tensions in the region.
On May 19, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi acknowledged the potential threat from Belarus, stating that operations in the north are a real possibility. In response, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko declared that Minsk would not become involved in Russia’s war against Ukraine, provided there is no aggression against Belarusian territory.
While Belarus has not directly participated in the war against Ukraine, it allowed Russian troops to use its territory for transit and deployment since February 2022, and attacks on Ukraine have been launched from Belarusian soil.
The ISW reports that Russia and Belarus are crafting a narrative to justify drone strikes on Ukraine from Belarus. This follows claims of Ukrainian drone incursions, which may be used to legitimize military actions against Ukraine.