Major General Oleksandr Pivnenko, the commander of Ukraine’s National Guard, has indicated that Russia may attempt a renewed invasion of Ukraine from Belarus if it can muster an additional 70,000 troops. This statement was made during an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
Pivnenko emphasized that Russia’s current objective is to stretch Ukrainian forces thin, facilitating deeper incursions into Ukrainian territory. He remarked, “But for this, they need forces – if they can find 70,000 servicemen, let them try. We will do our best to ensure they do not find them.”
The general noted that the Russian special forces unit, Senesh, is already active near the border, particularly in the Chernihiv direction. However, he expressed skepticism about the unit’s ability to mobilize quickly, citing ongoing issues for Russian troops in the Pokrovsk direction, where Ukrainian forces have been effective in neutralizing enemy infantry.
Pivnenko also highlighted that National Guard units are participating in security operations along the border in coordination with other defense forces, stating, “Everything is currently stable there.” He added, “In Sumy, our units are on the defensive, particularly in the Chernihiv area. We are focusing more on drone operations, ensuring continuous aerial surveillance of the border. If there are indications that the enemy plans to advance in the northern regions of our country – either in the Chernihiv or Chernobyl directions – we are prepared. The events of 2022 will not be repeated here.”
When asked about the potential threat from the unrecognized Transnistria region, Pivnenko expressed doubt about such a scenario. He advised against involvement in the conflict for both Belarus and Transnistria, asserting that Ukraine possesses the capability to thwart any aggressive plans.
On June 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that his public demand for Minsk to dismantle relay stations used by Russian forces for attacks on Ukraine marked a significant step. He noted that Kyiv had previously communicated through intelligence channels to Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko about the need to cease technical support for this equipment.
Background on the Threat from Belarus
On April 17, 2026, President Zelensky remarked that Moscow is attempting to draw Minsk into the conflict, mentioning ongoing road construction and artillery position establishment in Belarusian border areas aimed at Ukraine.
Subsequently, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, confirmed that intelligence regarding a potential Russian offensive from Belarus is credible.
On May 20, Zelensky indicated that Russia is considering scenarios for additional attacks on northern Ukraine, particularly in the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction, originating from Belarus and the Bryansk region.
In contrast, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has claimed that Minsk will not be drawn into the war unless Belarus itself is attacked, and he has proposed a meeting with President Zelensky.
Major General Oleksandr Pivnenko warns of a potential Russian invasion from Belarus, contingent on Moscow's ability to deploy additional troops. He emphasizes Ukraine's preparedness and ongoing security measures along the border.
Source: Interfax-Ukraine