Ukraine is preparing for possible electricity shortages this summer, with experts warning of potential hourly outages due to the combined effects of heat and ongoing Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. The DiXi Group, a Ukrainian analytical center, has highlighted these risks as the nation braces for the upcoming season.
Forecasts indicate that if the summer remains moderately warm and large-scale strikes on energy facilities do not occur, the shortfall during peak consumption hours could reach approximately 0.7 GW. However, in the event of prolonged heat, this deficit could escalate to 2.4 GW.
The situation is further complicated by scheduled maintenance of nuclear power plant units, which are crucial for Ukraine’s electricity generation. Experts from DiXi Group emphasize that as temperatures rise, the likelihood of scheduled outages increases. Notably, power shortages could even occur at night, a time when demand is typically lower.
The worst-case scenario envisions simultaneous extreme heat and renewed Russian attacks, which could push the deficit to 6.2 GW against a projected demand of 15.8 GW, representing nearly 40% of the required capacity.
During the winter of 2025-2026, extensive Russian strikes damaged over half of Ukraine’s generating capacity, leading to blackouts in Kyiv lasting up to 16 hours a day. Experts stress that the stability of the energy system this summer will largely depend on weather conditions, the volume of electricity imports, and the absence of further attacks on critical infrastructure.
Power Outages
In May, Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, predicted that Ukraine might experience electricity outages lasting up to four hours daily if temperatures exceed 35°C, even without new Russian strikes. Energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev previously noted that outages could return in the summer due to worsening weather and mass missile attacks. However, he remains hopeful that Ukraine can navigate the summer with minimal disruptions.
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Ukraine is bracing for potential electricity shortages this summer due to expected heat and the risk of renewed Russian attacks. Experts predict that outages could occur even during off-peak hours, with the worst-case scenario suggesting a significant deficit in power supply.