Ukrainian officials are assessing the potential threats posed by Belarus in the context of the ongoing war, but they caution against jumping to conclusions regarding its involvement. In a recent interview, Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, highlighted the persistent risk to the Chernihiv and Kyiv regions as long as a pro-Russian regime remains in power in Belarus.
Palisa stated, “As long as a regime loyal to Putin exists in Belarus, we will always consider it a potential threat.” He recalled that prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Belarusian territory was used to launch attacks on Ukraine, despite official denials from Belarusian leadership.
He also addressed the situation concerning Russian airstrikes, noting that during recent large-scale attacks, drones operated along the Belarusian border without crossing into Ukrainian airspace. However, he warned against making premature conclusions about whether Russia is utilizing Belarusian territory for direct military operations.
“I would not rush to such conclusions… it is possible that equipment for drone control is being operated from Belarus,” Palisa remarked. The Office of the President continues to view Belarus as a significant security factor in the northern sector, emphasizing the need for careful evaluation of its potential role in the conflict.
Concerns Regarding Belarusian Involvement
Earlier, retired Captain Andriy Ryzhko of the Ukrainian Navy indicated that if Belarus were to be used as a launch point for attacks on Ukraine, the country could expect strikes targeting its logistics. He noted that Belarusian forces understand that any aggression from their territory would provoke a response.
Military analyst Oleksiy Hetman also pointed out that Belarus lacks the necessary forces and resources to initiate large-scale military actions against Ukraine. He suggested that any Belarusian military focus would likely be directed towards the northern front rather than the south, mentioning the Suwalki Gap and potential actions against Lithuania as possibilities.
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Ukrainian officials are closely monitoring the situation in Belarus, assessing its potential threats while urging caution against premature conclusions regarding its involvement in the ongoing conflict. The presence of a pro-Russian regime in Belarus continues to be viewed as a significant risk to Ukraine's northern regions.