Russian forces are expected to conduct a new launch of the medium-range ballistic missile “Oreshnik” within the next 24 to 48 hours, targeting Ukraine. This anticipated action is believed to be a demonstration of strength following the recent celebrations of Russia Day, according to a report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukrainian Air Force officials have raised alarms about a “high probability” of such a missile launch from the Kapustin Yar testing ground in the Astrakhan region. U.S. intelligence has also warned Kyiv about the potential threat posed by the “Oreshnik” missile.
The ISW noted that Russia has previously employed this type of missile against Ukraine on at least three occasions, including twice in 2026. Analysts suggest that this potential launch may be part of a broader escalation in Russia’s campaign of long-range strikes, particularly in light of recent successful Ukrainian attacks on military targets within Russia and ongoing challenges in defending its territory from Ukrainian drones.
During celebrations for Russia Day, President Vladimir Putin emphasized the military capabilities of the country, discussing advancements in drone technology, electronic warfare, and other military innovations. However, he also acknowledged the difficulties faced by Russian forces on the front lines, admitting that progress has not been as rapid as desired.
The ISW posits that a strike using the “Oreshnik” could be an attempt by the Kremlin to assert its resolve and military capabilities following the festivities on June 12, amid increasing Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics and military infrastructure.
On May 24, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed a previous attack involving the “Oreshnik” missile on the city of Bila Tserkva in Kyiv Oblast. In his video address, he criticized the Russian military’s actions, stating, “Putin can hardly pronounce the word ‘hurrah’ anymore, yet he continues to strike residential buildings with his missiles. Three Russian missiles hit a water supply facility, damaging a market and several residential buildings, along with ordinary schools. He launched his ‘Oreshnik’ against Bila Tserkva. It is truly irrational.”
Russian military forces have consistently targeted Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure using various types of weaponry, including strike drones, missiles, and multiple launch rocket systems. Ukrainian authorities and international organizations classify these attacks as war crimes, emphasizing their targeted nature.
Attacks on essential services and healthcare facilities aimed at depriving civilians of electricity, heating, water supply, communication, medical assistance, and other necessary living conditions are viewed as indicators of genocidal actions. The Russian leadership denies that its military is intentionally striking civilian infrastructure, resulting in civilian casualties and the destruction of hospitals, schools, kindergartens, and energy and water supply facilities.
Russian forces are poised to launch a new medium-range missile strike on Ukraine, potentially as a show of strength following Russia Day celebrations. This action follows recent Ukrainian military successes and highlights ongoing tensions in the region.
Source: Institute for the Study of War