On June 7, Armenia held parliamentary elections in which Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party, Civil Contract, secured 49.81% of the votes. While this result allows Pashinyan to retain power, it falls short of the majority needed to initiate constitutional reforms.
The ability to amend the constitution is crucial for achieving lasting peace and improving relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The current constitution references the Declaration of Independence, which aims to unify the Armenian SSR with Nagorno-Karabakh, a region recognized by the UN as occupied territory of Azerbaijan since the early 1990s.
This constitutional framework could potentially empower nationalist factions within Armenia to reignite regional conflicts, using the existing legal basis to justify their actions.
Despite Pashinyan’s electoral success, a faction supported by Russia faced defeat. Figures like Samvel Karapetyan and Robert Kocharyan lost their chance to reestablish ties with the Kremlin, militarize the country, or prepare for renewed hostilities. However, they may still obstruct Pashinyan’s efforts to reform the constitution, as instability in the Caucasus benefits Russian interests.
A peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would favor regional stability, as well as the interests of Turkey, Europe, and the United States. Conversely, the Kremlin risks losing its influence, which it has maintained for decades by managing the conflict through military presence and mediation.
In a bid to undermine Pashinyan’s position, Russian state media have portrayed the election results as a setback for the pro-Western leader, focusing on his failure to secure over 50% of the vote. This narrative aligns with Moscow’s strategy to destabilize the region.
Pro-Russian officials in the Caucasus and the EU may soon advocate for a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan without waiting for constitutional reforms, despite the potential for chaos that this could bring.
International experts emphasize that a peace deal should not merely normalize relations between Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; it must foster a renewed relationship between the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples, promoting cooperation and prosperity.
Without a comprehensive peace treaty and constitutional amendments, the unlocking of regional communications remains unattainable, as reiterated by leaders from Azerbaijan and Turkey. This opening is seen as essential for Armenia’s economic growth and its pivot away from reliance on Russia.
Pashinyan has acknowledged the need for constitutional changes, likening Armenia to a person in red clothing navigating a path flanked by bulls. In a 2024 interview, he stated that without reform, Armenia would struggle to progress.
The nearly 50% of voters who supported Pashinyan indicate a public readiness for change. Although he lacks an absolute majority to unilaterally initiate a referendum, he could still pursue constitutional reform by garnering support from some opposition lawmakers. The EU Institute for Security Studies warns that Russia will likely focus its efforts on disrupting this peace process.
Armenia requires a constitution that addresses contemporary realities rather than one that reflects the conflicts of the late 1980s. The South Caucasus operates in a different context now, and Nagorno-Karabakh is no longer a viable negotiation topic.
If the Armenian people genuinely seek peace, economic development, and regional integration, they must take steps to eliminate legal barriers that perpetuate conflict and instead focus on the nation’s growth. This approach is vital not only for Armenia and Azerbaijan but for the entire region and the European Union.
Nikol Pashinyan's recent electoral victory in Armenia allows him to maintain power but lacks the majority needed for constitutional reform. The implications of this partial win could affect Armenia's relations with Azerbaijan and impact regional stability.