China and Kazakhstan are intensifying efforts to enhance the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, which bypasses Russia. If successful, this initiative could significantly impact Russia’s revenue from transit traffic between Asia and Europe.
The route traverses Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, allowing goods to avoid Russian territory entirely. Despite its complexity compared to traditional Russian transit—which involves a mix of rail transport, maritime crossings, and customs procedures across multiple countries—both China and Kazakhstan are making substantial investments to develop this corridor.
Key motivations behind this shift include the risks associated with sanctions, diminishing trust in Russia as a transit partner, and the desire to reduce reliance on unstable maritime routes. Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the national railway company, plans to invest approximately $10 billion by 2030 to modernize its railway, port, and terminal infrastructure.
By 2026, KTZ aims to construct around 900 kilometers of new railway lines, including a section between Ayagoz and Bakhty, which will establish a third railway crossing at the Chinese border. This expansion could increase the route’s capacity from 55 million to 100 million tons of cargo annually by 2030.
Additionally, KTZ is allocating over $100 million for the construction of six new cargo vessels to facilitate transport across the Caspian Sea between the ports of Aktau, Kurik, and Baku.
As the transport corridor expands, KTZ is also preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) in 2026, with plans to list shares in Kazakhstan, London, and Hong Kong. Proceeds from the IPO are expected to support further infrastructure development and fleet modernization.
According to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route Association, cargo volumes along the route increased from 2.76 million tons in 2023 to 4.48 million tons in 2024. In the first quarter of 2026, approximately 173 container trains have already utilized the corridor, with Kazakhstan aiming to boost this figure to 600 by the end of the year. Projections indicate a further 67% increase by 2027.
Analysts estimate that once the route reaches full capacity, Russia may lose its status as a key transit hub between Asia and Europe, resulting in substantial financial losses.
China and Kazakhstan are rapidly advancing the Trans-Caspian transport route, aiming to bypass Russia and significantly increase cargo capacity. This development could lead to major financial repercussions for Russia as it risks losing its role as a primary transit hub between Asia and Europe.