Geoffrey Kendrick, a senior market analyst at Standard Chartered, has indicated that the recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market may have reached its conclusion. He suggests that bitcoin has established a cycle low at approximately $59,000, marking a significant decline of 53% from its all-time high of $126,000 recorded on October 6.
Kendrick’s analysis, shared in a note on Friday, highlights two primary factors he believes will support a market recovery. Firstly, he notes that the recent surge in selling of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been among the sharpest since their inception, with total redemptions exceeding $5.72 billion since mid-May. This selling pressure was partly attributed to ETF holders liquidating their positions to free up capital for the highly anticipated IPO of SpaceX, which began trading on Nasdaq at around $150 on Friday and has since risen by approximately 26%.
According to Kendrick, the initiation of SpaceX’s IPO could alleviate the selling pressure on bitcoin, as the market begins to stabilize. He pointed out that the intense demand for digital assets is already reflected in trading volumes on platforms like Hyperliquid, where SpaceX’s crypto contracts have recently seen high activity and valuations reaching up to $2.4 trillion.
Secondly, Kendrick referenced a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, which could help to stabilize oil prices. He argued that lower oil prices would subsequently reduce U.S. Treasury yields, thereby easing macroeconomic pressures on the cryptocurrency market. Brent crude oil prices have recently dipped to around $87 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude was approximately $85 per barrel, coinciding with discussions of the peace deal.
To further validate his outlook on a market turnaround, Kendrick is monitoring three key indicators in the coming days. He is particularly interested in an announcement regarding Michael Saylor’s company, MicroStrategy, potentially purchasing more bitcoin this week. Additionally, he is looking for a return to net-positive daily inflows for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, as international oil prices continue to decline.
Despite the optimistic outlook, Kendrick’s predictions come amidst some uncertainty regarding the U.S.-Iran negotiations. Although President Trump initially suggested a peace deal was imminent, he later indicated on social media that the terms discussed were not as previously agreed, urging Iranian officials to take swift action.
Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered forecasts a recovery in the cryptocurrency market, citing a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal and the SpaceX IPO as key factors. He believes bitcoin has reached a price low and is monitoring specific metrics to confirm market stability.