Russia has reportedly amassed a significant advantage in drone capabilities, which it may leverage against NATO countries until at least 2028, according to Kaspars Pudans, the Commander of the Latvian Armed Forces, as cited by the Financial Times.
General Pudans clarified that while Russia does not possess superior drone technology compared to NATO, it is producing drones in much larger quantities and adapting them more swiftly. He stated, “Their advantage lies in the scalability of drones. They can quickly replenish stocks and deploy a large number at scale.”
Most NATO military modernization programs are expected to take effect around 2029. Pudans highlighted this period as potentially dangerous, suggesting, “If I were in the Kremlin, I would say that if we are going to do something, we should do it before the end of 2028.”
A senior official from another NATO country echoed this sentiment, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin has at least two motivations to act sooner: uncertainty regarding U.S. policy following Trump’s presidency and increasing defense budgets in Europe.
Both sides in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine are utilizing thousands of drones daily. However, the report indicates that Russia has gained an advantage through continuous combat experiments and rapid technological advancements on the battlefield. NATO forces currently lack comparable experience. During recent British Army exercises simulating a conflict scenario in Estonia, commanders predicted that drone supplies would be depleted in less than a week.
Pudans distinguished between two levels of threat. While a large-scale invasion is currently unrealistic due to Russia’s focus on Ukraine, hybrid actions such as sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns remain possible at any moment. He emphasized, “We live with the assumption that aggression in some form could occur as soon as this evening.”
General Kaspars Pudans warns that Russia's drone capabilities could pose a significant threat to NATO until 2028, as NATO's military upgrades lag behind. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has allowed Russia to refine its drone technology through combat experience, raising concerns about potential hybrid attacks.