Recent investigations into the Russian ‘Oreshnik’ missile have revealed that it is not as revolutionary as the Kremlin has claimed. Contrary to assertions of its modernity, experts found that the missile was assembled in 2017 and relies on older technology.
Ukrainian specialists conducted a thorough examination of debris from the medium-range ballistic missile, which was launched at Ukraine in January. Their findings challenge Russian propaganda regarding the weapon’s supposed uniqueness and advanced capabilities.
The analysis indicated that the ‘Oreshnik’ was constructed using components manufactured in 2016 or earlier. Additionally, the onboard computer contains elements produced solely in Russia and Belarus. A Ukrainian expert remarked, “We were quite surprised because they say this is a completely new missile, but the assembly date indicates 2017.”
Military officials in Ukraine view the ‘Oreshnik’ not as a new development but rather as a modernized version of the Soviet/Russian RS-26 ‘Rubezh,’ which underwent successful testing as early as 2012.
In light of ongoing Western sanctions, Ukrainian presidential advisor Vladislav Vasyuk reported that some electronic components have been salvaged from missiles, including one that struck Lviv in January. Investigations into missile remnants from subsequent attacks are ongoing.
Vasyuk noted a trend where Russia is increasingly replacing European and American microchips with Chinese counterparts due to sanctions. However, Western chips still find their way into Russian weaponry through illegal import networks, prompting Kyiv to urge its allies to enhance export controls.
Since the onset of the full-scale invasion, Russia has launched ‘Oreshnik’ missiles at least three times. One notable strike occurred near Kyiv during a large-scale aerial assault on May 24.
The ‘Oreshnik’ missile is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, with a claimed range exceeding 5,000 kilometers. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly asserted that this weapon is supposedly invulnerable to modern air defense systems, yet international and Ukrainian analysts have cast doubt on these claims.
During a combined nighttime attack on Kyiv, the ‘Oreshnik’ missile was launched, and numerous fragments were collected for analysis. Despite the adversary’s extensive plans, the actual effectiveness of this strike proved to be low.
Subsequently, Western allies joined in the examination of the missile fragments, with some debris being forwarded to U.S. intelligence for further study. American lawmakers emphasized that the use of such weaponry represents another escalation attempt by Putin, which has, however, provided Ukrainian forces and their allies with a unique opportunity to analyze the missile’s technical specifications.
Furthermore, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russia may have launched not one but two ‘Oreshnik’ missiles on the night of May 24. Open-source intelligence researchers indicated that the second missile malfunctioned and fell back onto the positions of the Russian forces in the Donetsk region. If confirmed, this would suggest that one in every four missiles of this type experiences failure during launch.
Investigations into the Russian 'Oreshnik' missile reveal it relies on outdated technology and was assembled in 2017. Despite claims of modernity, the findings indicate significant reliance on older components, raising questions about the missile's effectiveness and the Kremlin's assertions.