Recent assessments indicate that Russia is running low on its stock of ‘Oreshnik’ missiles, a development highlighted in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This situation arises amid ongoing military operations and a push for increased production from Russian leadership.
According to analysts from the private Ukrainian firm Dallas Analytics, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a ramp-up in the production of four additional ‘Oreshnik’ missiles following an initial strike on Dnipro in November 2024. Since then, three of these missiles have reportedly been deployed in 2026:
- One missile was launched at the Lviv region on the night of January 9;
- Two missiles were used in attacks on the Bila Tserkva area in Kyiv Oblast;
- One missile failed to reach its target and fell in the temporarily occupied Donetsk region on the night of May 24.
Dallas Analytics estimates that, after these launches, only one operational ‘Oreshnik’ missile may remain from the original production order.
The situation has raised concerns regarding the quality of the missiles being produced. Sources within the Russian Ministry of Defense have allegedly indicated that manufacturers have compromised on quality control procedures to meet the Kremlin’s production deadlines. Furthermore, documents obtained by Dallas Analytics from March 2025 suggest that issues with the Soviet-era GU-503 aviation gyroscope could adversely affect the missile’s guidance system. This malfunction may lead to significant deviations from intended targets, potentially by several kilometers.
Despite the dwindling stockpile, ISW analysts believe that Russia will likely continue its efforts to produce more ‘Oreshnik’ missiles to sustain its military capabilities.
Analysts report that Russia's inventory of 'Oreshnik' missiles is nearly exhausted, with only one operational missile left. Concerns have been raised regarding quality control in production as Russia seeks to maintain its military operations.