Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set a goal to end hostilities by winter, asserting that there are feasible conditions for a ceasefire. As Ukraine prepares for critical negotiations involving Western allies, it has firmly ruled out any territorial concessions.
Key Objectives:
- Timeline for Ending the War: President Zelensky’s aim to conclude military actions before winter is viewed as realistic and well-considered.
- Negotiation Process: Ongoing technical discussions indicate that negotiations are not at a standstill. Ukraine is preparing for an upcoming visit from a U.S. delegation expected to travel to both Kyiv and Moscow.
- Ukraine’s Stance: Ukraine will not concede any territory, including the Donbas region. The initial step must be to halt military operations at current positions.
- Role of the West and Europe: Europe needs to establish a unified representative and position for participation in negotiations, as the involvement of Western partners is deemed essential.
- Threats: Russian military developments, such as the ‘Oreshnik’ system, are seen as largely demonstrative. Concerns about President Putin’s safety and a decline in the Russian power structure have been noted.
- Belarus: Ukraine is actively working to prevent the use of Belarusian territory for further aggression.
During a recent forum, Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov addressed the current state of negotiations. He emphasized that discussions are ongoing and have not reached an impasse, contrary to some reports.
Budanov stated, “I have never said that we are at a deadlock, and I maintain that position as certain processes continue, albeit not entirely public. We are expecting a visit from the American delegation soon, and they have confirmed plans to arrive in Kyiv and Moscow shortly.”
He reiterated the urgency of President Zelensky’s directive to end the war as soon as possible, ideally before winter. Budanov expressed confidence in Ukraine’s capabilities to achieve this goal, noting, “There are real signs that the groundwork for a ceasefire already exists.”
Budanov stressed the necessity of concluding military actions first, stating, “How we achieve this is secondary. We must work on security guarantees for Ukraine. Without guarantees, there will be no future, and it will devolve into a ‘gray zone’ where countries do not develop but merely survive.”
Regarding the role of Europe in the negotiations, Budanov remarked, “I do not think Europe should act merely as a mediator; it should eventually become a participant. The critical question is what position Europe will take and who will represent it. A unified stance is essential.”
He pointed out that Europe has yet to identify a single representative for negotiations, emphasizing the need for clarity and cohesion among European nations. “It cannot be a hundred people; it must be one individual. We need to establish a position and compile it with Ukraine’s stance,” he added.
On the potential threats from Belarus, Budanov stated, “We must be strong and prepared for anything, so that foolish thoughts do not enter anyone’s mind. Assistance to prevent any provocations will always be welcome.” He expressed skepticism about the ability of Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to address these threats.
Budanov also commented on the Russian military’s capabilities, noting that while new systems like ‘Oreshnik’ are primarily for demonstration, Russia possesses sufficient resources to continue military operations. He remarked, “They have the capacity to sustain combat activities.”
He further highlighted that recent Ukrainian strikes have intensified, affecting Russian morale. “Their society was not mentally prepared for such a scale of drone and missile attacks, which has been a shock to them,” Budanov stated.
Finally, Budanov touched on President Putin’s concerns for his safety, indicating that such fears are not unfounded. He noted, “While some may view them as irrational, there are serious and intelligent individuals in Russia who analyze the current situation and recognize the systemic decline occurring.”
Ukrainian officials assert that conditions for a ceasefire are developing as negotiations with Western partners continue. President Zelensky aims to conclude military actions by winter, firmly rejecting any territorial concessions.