A recent study by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) indicates that over half of the current Ukrainian refugees may remain in Europe until at least 2029, depending on various scenarios regarding the ongoing conflict with Russia.
The report outlines three potential scenarios for the future of these refugees. In the first scenario, where Russia maintains control over occupied territories and investment levels in Ukrainian-controlled areas remain stable, it is projected that approximately 2.9 million Ukrainian refugees, or 56% of the current total, will stay in Europe until 2029. This scenario also suggests that temporary protection status for these refugees in the EU could end by March 2027.
The second scenario, which envisions a continuation of Russian aggression, estimates that 5.16 million refugees, nearly 99% of the current number, will still be in Europe by the end of 2029. The third scenario, which anticipates a Ukrainian victory and the return of occupied territories by the end of this year, could see the number of refugees decrease by up to 32%.
UNHCR clarified that these scenarios are not predictions but rather models to illustrate how refugee behavior might change in response to different potential future events, based on various data sources, including surveys.
In related discussions, the European Commission is engaging with EU member states to explore options for the status of Ukrainians living in the EU post-March 2027. This includes considerations for either fully ending temporary protection or extending it for an additional year.
Initially implemented in March 2022, the Temporary Protection Directive provided millions of Ukrainians with access to rights within the EU, alleviating pressure on the asylum system. Originally intended as a short-term emergency measure, its duration has been extended multiple times and is currently set to last until March 4, 2027.
The UNHCR's latest study forecasts that a significant number of Ukrainian refugees may remain in Europe until 2029, depending on the conflict's trajectory. The findings highlight the potential impact of various scenarios on refugee status and support in the EU.