Recent analysis from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Russian military efforts are increasingly targeting the city of Kostiantynivka in the Donbas region. Previously, Russian troops had concentrated their attacks around Sloviansk but faced significant challenges in making substantial gains there.
The report details that Russian forces initiated their offensive in the spring and summer of 2026 with a series of mechanized assaults near Lyman, located northeast of Sloviansk. This strategy suggested that Russian command initially aimed to prioritize an advance on Sloviansk from the northeast. However, the lack of significant success in that area has likely prompted a shift in focus to capturing Kostiantynivka.
Analysts from ISW believe that while Russia may achieve tactical victories in Kostiantynivka by the end of summer 2026, any substantial operational success in the broader fortified belt of Donbas, which includes Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka, remains unlikely. The report notes, “Russian forces are likely to continue penetrating Kostiantynivka and establishing positions in certain areas of the city, but they will probably incur significant losses.”
Kostiantynivka has emerged as a critical target for Russian operations in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, this area ranks third in terms of intensity of Russian assaults, following Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. Reports from the Donbas Realities project indicate that Ukrainian troops have observed Russian storm troops in various parts of Kostiantynivka, which serves as a vital node in Ukraine’s defensive strategy in the Donbas.
The “grey zone” in Kostiantynivka has been gradually expanding since November of last year, although Russian forces have struggled to establish a firm presence. Despite these difficulties, Russian attacks have severely damaged the city through the use of guided bombs, artillery, and drones. Additionally, Russian troops have been persistently targeting the main logistical route, known as the “road of life,” which is essential for the Ukrainian military garrison in the area.
In May, the Financial Times reported that Russian military leadership had convinced President Vladimir Putin that they could capture the entire Donbas region by the end of autumn. However, there is a growing narrative among analysts and media outlets suggesting a turning point on the front lines in favor of Ukraine.
The ISW reports a strategic shift in Russian military efforts towards Kostiantynivka, following setbacks in Sloviansk. While tactical gains may be possible, significant operational success in the region remains doubtful.
Source: Institute for the Study of War