The European Union is expected to initiate discussions on only two out of five clusters related to Ukraine’s membership negotiations this July, according to sources familiar with the matter. Doubts persist within the EU regarding the feasibility of launching all remaining clusters, following the opening of the first cluster in June 2026.
Sources indicate that the EU is likely to open Cluster 2, which focuses on the Internal Market, and Cluster 6, covering Common Foreign and Security Policy. Alternatively, Cluster 3, which pertains to Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth, could replace one of the aforementioned clusters.
“The sixth cluster will be the easiest for Ukraine, as it already meets 99% of the EU’s requirements in this area,” stated one source, citing remarks from Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
In contrast, Clusters 4 and 5, which address the Green Agenda and Sustainable Connectivity, as well as Resources, Agriculture, and Cohesion Policy, are considered among the most challenging. Resistance from several member states, including France, Poland, and Italy, has contributed to delays, with discussions about their opening now pushed to the fall.
Currently, working groups are focused on advancing the discussions for Clusters 2 and 6. The Cypriot presidency of the EU Council remains optimistic about concluding work before the end of June.
A senior EU diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, expressed concerns over the slow pace of reforms in Ukraine, particularly due to the sluggish performance of its parliament and ongoing tensions with Poland stemming from a bilateral scandal. However, there have been no indications from Warsaw about blocking Ukraine’s membership talks.
“We have experienced instances where blockages occurred due to unrelated issues, as seen with Bulgaria and North Macedonia. Public opinion in many Western countries needs to shift in favor of Ukraine’s integration,” the diplomat remarked.
Recently, EU Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, stated that all clusters are ready for opening in July, although the final outcome will depend on member states. “If not in July, then very soon,” he asserted.
Earlier, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán remarked that expedited EU membership for Ukraine would be unfair to the Western Balkan nations, noting that Hungary is not alone in opposing the opening of additional clusters. He also claimed credit for removing a clause regarding Ukraine’s accelerated membership from the EU summit declaration during the June 2026 EU Council meeting.
The EU is poised to open only two clusters in Ukraine's membership negotiations this July, amid concerns over reform progress and resistance from certain member states. While optimism remains for future discussions, significant challenges persist.