Russian officials are reportedly exploring the possibility of relocating up to 100,000 Armenians residing in Russia to participate in Armenia’s parliamentary elections, aiming to sway votes against the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
According to sources, these efforts include disinformation campaigns supporting pro-Russian candidates and logistical plans for transporting tens of thousands of Armenians to influence the electoral outcome. Among the favored candidates backed by Moscow is Samvel Karapetyan, a billionaire under investigation for alleged calls to overthrow the government.
In October, the Kremlin established a unit called the ‘Department of Strategic Cooperation and Partnership,’ which oversees influence operations in Armenia. Recent discussions among Russian officials have focused on sending Armenians from Russia to vote against Pashinyan’s administration.
One American official indicated that the feasibility of transporting such a large number of voters is a topic of debate within the intelligence community, though there is a serious consideration of the plan’s potential. Armenians frequently travel between the two countries, with numerous flights operating daily.
Russian authorities have estimated that the cost of relocating 100,000 voters would be approximately $50 million. By mid-May, the Kremlin had set quotas for the number of Armenians each region should send and requested updates on the preparations.
It remains unclear whether this plan is being implemented and whether it would be sufficient to close the significant gap in polling between candidates. Recent surveys indicate that Pashinyan’s party, the Civil Contract, is projected to secure around 30% of the votes, while Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia party is forecasted to receive approximately 6%.
In addition to logistical efforts, Russian officials have intensified disinformation campaigns aimed at discrediting Pashinyan’s government. These campaigns have included false allegations regarding a corrupt land deal involving Pashinyan and U.S. senators.
A European official noted the involvement of a Kremlin-linked bot network named Storm-1516, which has previously attempted to interfere in U.S. elections. Furthermore, the Kremlin has engaged Russian political consulting firms and think tanks, including the Social Design Agency (SDA), which is under sanctions in the EU and the UK for disseminating disinformation to undermine support for Ukraine.
Documents reviewed by the agency, purportedly prepared by SDA, proposed the establishment of a media outlet named ‘Yerevan-1’ aimed at the Russian diaspora in Armenia to promote negative sentiments towards Pashinyan. The documents suggested disseminating a narrative that ‘Armenia can only thrive in close alliance with Russia and under its protection.’
One document assessed that Russian Armenians could play a crucial role in the elections if high voter turnout among them could be achieved. Russian President Vladimir Putin has openly expressed dissatisfaction with Pashinyan’s shift towards greater cooperation with Western nations.
In recent days, Moscow has warned that Armenia risks losing access to cheap gas supplies and has restricted imports of Armenian goods, including fruits, vegetables, flowers, and brandy. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly endorsed Pashinyan ahead of the elections.
Russian officials are reportedly planning to transport Armenians from Russia to influence the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia. This strategy includes disinformation campaigns and logistical preparations, highlighting Moscow's intent to sway the electoral outcome against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.