Ukrainian officials have assessed that Russia may require approximately 18 months to capture the entirety of the Donbas region. However, this would come at a significant cost, likely resulting in the loss of the majority of Russia’s military forces currently stationed in occupied areas of Ukraine.
Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, indicated that in 2025, Russian forces managed to seize less than 1% of Ukrainian territory, incurring losses of over 450,000 soldiers in the process. This statistic highlights the considerable human cost associated with Russia’s military ambitions.
Currently, Ukrainian defense forces maintain control over about 6,000 square kilometers of the Donetsk region. Palisa emphasized that, given the current military dynamics, Russia would require additional time to achieve full occupation, and this would only be feasible if they were willing to sustain heavy losses.
“Considering the current dynamics, they will need approximately 18 months for this. The resources required would be equivalent to the current Russian deployment in Ukraine. It will be very difficult for them to accomplish this, and it will not happen as quickly as they desire,” Palisa concluded.
In recent statements, Palisa noted that Russia aims to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk by the end of March or early April. This ambition underscores the ongoing military conflict, which is paralleled by peace negotiations. Russia continues to demand the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas as a precondition for ending the war.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has remarked that while Ukraine cannot reclaim its territories, Russia also cannot achieve victory. This sentiment reflects the stalemate in the conflict.
Looking ahead, a new round of trilateral negotiations involving Ukraine, the United States, and Russia is scheduled for March 4-5. According to Bloomberg, Moscow may withdraw from discussions if Kyiv does not agree to relinquish control of Donbas. This upcoming meeting has been characterized as potentially pivotal for reaching a peace agreement.
Ukrainian officials estimate that Russia could take up to 18 months to fully occupy the Donbas region, facing significant military losses. As peace negotiations continue, both sides are navigating a complex landscape of military and diplomatic challenges.