As Ukraine navigates complex energy and economic conditions, the currency market is entering mid-February without significant fluctuations.
Key Highlights:
- Stability: The exchange rate for the dollar has stabilized around 43 UAH, becoming the new norm.
- Tax Factors: Regular mid-month tax payments compel companies to sell currency, which saturates the market and prevents sharp increases in the exchange rate.
- NBU Position: The National Bank of Ukraine maintains a policy of “managed flexibility,” dampening sharp fluctuations while allowing the market to find its balance.
- Euro Trends: The euro is following global trends in its exchange rate.
“Despite challenging internal and external conditions, the Ukrainian currency market is entering mid-February without critical imbalances. Key exchange rate benchmarks remain within expected ranges, and fluctuations around the 43 UAH level do not indicate destabilization,” stated Lesovyi.
Current Figures:
- The cash dollar exchange rate (in exchange offices and banks) is expected to fluctuate between 42.50 – 43.50 UAH, while the interbank rate will range from 42.75 – 43.25 UAH.
- The euro is projected to be between 50-52 UAH in exchange offices and banks, with a similar forecast for the interbank market.
Lesovyi noted that the euro continues to align with global trends. The weakening of the dollar worldwide is attributed to a combination of economic, political, and geopolitical factors, a situation that persists.
He further predicted that global quotations for the dollar/euro pair will range between 1.18-1.20, indicating that the conditions observed at the beginning of February will remain.
Weekly Key Indicators: Forecast
- Daily Changes: Exchange rates may vary by up to 30 kopecks per day.
- Spread: The difference between buying and selling rates will range from 60 kopecks to 1 UAH for the dollar.
- Weekly Deviation: The exchange rate is not expected to change by more than 1-1.5% from the initial price on Monday.
Note: This material is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments carry risks, including the potential for total capital loss. RBC-Ukraine is not responsible for financial decisions made based on this material. It is recommended to consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Ukrainian currency market is demonstrating stability as it enters mid-February, with the dollar remaining around 43 UAH. Regular tax payments and the National Bank’s policies are contributing to this steadiness, despite ongoing economic challenges.