During a recent interview at the Moscow Exchange Forum, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that the projected oil price for the 2026 budget is adequate, set at $59 per barrel. He emphasized that there is currently no need to adjust this figure, indicating confidence in the budget’s resilience at this level.
Siluanov explained that the base price will be gradually reduced to protect the budget from fluctuations in energy market prices. According to Russia’s budgetary rules, the price for Urals crude oil is established at $59 per barrel for 2026 and is expected to decrease by $1 each year until 2030. This base price is crucial for budget formulation, as revenues exceeding this threshold are allocated for purchasing foreign currency and gold for the National Wealth Fund (NWF). Conversely, if revenues fall below this base price, the Finance Ministry will sell currency and gold from the NWF.
Despite the budget’s reliance on this forecast, recent data has shown a significant shortfall in oil revenues. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development had projected an average oil price of $59 per barrel for Urals at the start of 2026. However, actual prices were considerably lower, with January averaging $40 per barrel and February at $44.6 per barrel. As a result, the budget has faced a substantial decline in oil and gas revenue.
Siluanov reported that approximately 500 billion rubles have been utilized from the NWF over the first two months of the year to address these shortfalls.
In a related development, Politico reported on April 15 that the U.S. has reinstated sanctions on Russian oil following a temporary suspension due to the conflict in Iran. The U.S. Treasury had previously eased restrictions on Russian oil and petroleum product sales that were already loaded onto vessels, aiming to stabilize prices amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in response to U.S.-Israeli operations.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passageway, accounting for approximately 20% of global maritime oil supplies, which has contributed to rising fuel prices. As of early April, prices for Urals crude reached their highest levels in 13 years, with experts forecasting that additional oil and gas revenues could exceed one trillion rubles in April alone.
Despite the surge in prices, which reached $100 per barrel in March due to the Iranian conflict, the average price remained at $77 per barrel according to data from the relevant ministry.
Interestingly, the lifting of U.S. sanctions has led to a notable development: for the first time in five years, the Philippines has purchased 2.5 million barrels of Russian crude oil. Additionally, 27,000 tons of Russian petroleum products were delivered to South Korea, marking its first purchase from Russia since 2022.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has affirmed that the projected oil price of $59 per barrel for the 2026 budget is sufficient, despite recent revenue shortfalls. The reinstatement of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and the subsequent market fluctuations have raised questions about the budget's stability and future revenue streams.
Source: РБК