In recent months, fuel prices in Ukraine have shown a mixed trend, particularly following a significant spike earlier this spring. While the costs of diesel and autogas have started to decline, gasoline prices have remained relatively stable, prompting questions about the factors influencing these fluctuations.
Experts suggest that the disparity in pricing is attributed to low profit margins on gasoline and a seasonal increase in demand. This report explores the current state of fuel prices, the potential for future changes, and the implications of upcoming regulatory shifts.
Key Points:
- Gasoline Paradox: Diesel and autogas prices are decreasing, whereas gasoline prices have stagnated due to low margins and rising seasonal demand.
- Price Expectations: Analysts predict further reductions in diesel prices, but they may not fall below the psychological threshold of 80 UAH per liter.
- Return to February Prices Unlikely: Despite some price reductions, gasoline is unlikely to revert to the 60 UAH per liter level seen earlier this year.
- E10 Standard Implementation: The transition to E10 gasoline, containing 10% bioethanol, is not expected to significantly impact prices or fuel quality.
- Oil Market Influence: Future fuel prices will largely depend on global oil prices and geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East.
Before the recent spike in prices, which began in March, average fuel costs in Ukraine were considerably lower. As of late February 2026, prices were as follows:
- Gasoline A-95: 60.36-61.83 UAH/liter
- Gasoline A-92: 58.81-59.75 UAH/liter
- Diesel: 59.93-61.55 UAH/liter
- Autogas: 38.36-38.52 UAH/liter
The onset of military conflict involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran significantly altered the oil market dynamics. The price of Brent crude oil surged from approximately 60 USD per barrel at the start of the year to over 120 USD at its peak, leading to a rapid increase in fuel prices across Ukraine.
As of June 11, 2026, major Ukrainian gas stations reported prices significantly higher than those in February. For instance, at OKKO and WOG, A-95 gasoline was priced at 78.90 UAH, while diesel was at 85.90 UAH and autogas at 45.90 UAH. SOCAR offered similar prices, with A-95 gasoline at 78.99 UAH and diesel at 86.99 UAH. In contrast, Ukrnafta maintained lower prices, selling A-95 gasoline at 74.90 UAH and diesel at 82.90 UAH.
According to Sergey Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group, the current pricing structure for gasoline is nearly marginless. The wholesale price stands at approximately 70-72 UAH per liter, while retail prices hover around 75 UAH. This situation leaves many retailers without profit from gasoline sales, forcing them to rely on better margins from diesel and autogas sales to compensate.
Olexandr Sirenko, director of the NaftoMarket consulting firm, notes that during the so-called “Iran crisis,” diesel prices in Europe rose more rapidly than gasoline due to high demand from both automotive and aviation sectors. In Ukraine, the government’s influence on Uklnafta has further restrained gasoline price increases.
As of May, global diesel prices began to retreat, while gasoline prices continued to rise, contributing to the current divergence in pricing trends. Additionally, seasonal shifts in consumption patterns have played a role, with increased demand for gasoline during the summer months.
While diesel prices may still have room for reduction, analysts believe they are unlikely to drop below 80 UAH per liter in the near term. The market is currently operating at the limits of consumer purchasing power, and regulatory bodies have not identified any abuses in current pricing.
Looking ahead, experts agree that a return to February 2026 price levels is implausible. Although oil prices have decreased from their peak, they remain significantly higher than earlier in the year. Current oil prices are around 95 USD per barrel, compared to 60 USD in February.
Furthermore, the implementation of the E10 standard, which mandates the inclusion of 10% bioethanol in gasoline starting July 1, is not anticipated to have a substantial effect on prices. While E10 may be slightly more expensive to procure, the overall impact on retail prices is expected to be minimal.
In conclusion, the coming weeks may see continued modest decreases in diesel and autogas prices, while gasoline prices are likely to stabilize at current levels. The future trajectory of fuel prices will depend heavily on global oil market trends and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Experts remain cautious about the potential for significant price reductions or a return to earlier price levels.
Fuel prices in Ukraine have exhibited mixed trends, with diesel and autogas prices declining while gasoline prices remain stable. Experts predict that a return to earlier price levels is unlikely, influenced by global oil prices and seasonal demand shifts.