In May, Ukraine’s currency market will be influenced by several factors, including the National Bank’s policies, international aid, oil prices, and military risks. However, significant fluctuations in exchange rates are not anticipated.
Key Forecasts:
- Dollar forecast: 43.5-44.5 UAH
- Euro forecast: 49.5-52.5 UAH
- The National Bank may sell up to 800 million USD weekly to stabilize the market
- Risks include oil prices, international assistance, and ongoing conflict
- No sharp or uncontrolled exchange rate spikes are expected
According to expert Taras Lesovyi, the market will continue to operate under a regime of managed flexibility in May, making sharp currency fluctuations unlikely.
Lesovyi predicts that the dollar will remain within the range of 43.5 to 44.5 UAH. He notes that the stability of the market will be supported by the National Bank’s currency interventions, which may average up to 800 million USD per week.
The euro is expected to be more volatile, with a potential range of 49.5 to 52.5 UAH. This volatility is attributed to its dependence on the global euro/dollar pair and oil prices. An increase in oil prices may strengthen the dollar, while stabilization or a decrease in prices could allow the euro to regain some ground.
Several key factors are influencing the currency market:
National Bank Policy: The regulator will continue to smooth out the imbalance between supply and demand through interventions.
International Aid: The potential unlocking of a 90 billion euro loan from the EU could support macro-financial stability.
Oil Market: Fluctuations in fuel prices may impact both inflation and the euro’s exchange rate.
Military Risks: Strikes on infrastructure and economic pressure remain potential triggers for market movements.
Overall, the currency market in May is expected to remain controlled, with the dollar’s exchange rate relatively stable. The primary risks are more closely tied to global conditions, external financing, and security factors rather than domestic market dynamics.
The Ukrainian currency market is projected to remain stable in May 2023, with the dollar expected to range between 43.5 and 44.5 UAH. Key influencing factors include National Bank interventions, international aid, and oil prices.