Experts warn that the United States faces an “immediate risk” of munitions depletion in the event of a future conflict with Iran, according to sources familiar with internal data from the U.S. Department of Defense.
A recent analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals that the U.S. has expended at least 45% of its precision missile stockpiles in the last seven weeks. Additionally, approximately half of the interceptors from the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and nearly 50% of the Patriot missile system’s inventory have been used.
Moreover, the United States has utilized around 30% of its Tomahawk missiles, over 20% of its Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), and close to 20% of both SM-3 and SM-6 missiles.
In the short term, analysts from CSIS believe that the U.S. has sufficient bombs and missiles to continue military operations against Iran under various scenarios, provided the fragile ceasefire holds. However, the remaining critical munitions are deemed inadequate for engaging a near-peer adversary like China, and it could take years for these stockpiles to return to pre-war levels.
Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel and one of the report’s authors, stated, “High munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific.” He estimated that it may take “one to four years” to replenish these stocks, with additional time needed to expand them to necessary levels.
Despite these concerns, Pentagon officials assert that U.S. military forces possess enough resources to fulfill their missions. Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell emphasized, “Since President Trump took office, we have conducted a series of successful operations across various combat commands while ensuring that U.S. armed forces have a robust arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and interests.”
Recent assessments indicate that the U.S. military is facing significant munitions depletion, raising concerns about readiness for potential conflicts, particularly with Iran. While officials maintain that current resources are adequate, experts warn that replenishing stockpiles could take years.