Diesel prices in Europe have surged to unprecedented levels, marking the highest figures seen since at least the early 1970s. This spike is particularly significant for Ukraine, which relies heavily on diesel imports.
On April 2, the London ICE exchange reported a closing price of $1,521 per ton for gas oil, reflecting a daily increase of $155 per ton. In Southern Europe, diesel prices reached $1,617 per ton (CIF).
According to fuel market expert Serhiy Kuyun, the price increase over March has exceeded 100%, a record that has not been seen in decades. “I’m not even sure if such prices have ever existed before; similar conditions were reported in the 1970s,” he stated.
The current pricing trends are expected to significantly raise the cost of diesel fuel in Ukraine. Kuyun indicated that if the ICE prices are considered, the cost of diesel at the border could reach 95 UAH per liter. Following this, additional costs would include 2 UAH per liter for transportation within Ukraine and 3 UAH for gas station expenses, such as staff salaries and electricity.
While prices are projected to rise, Kuyun reassured that a sudden spike to around 100 UAH per liter is not anticipated in the immediate future. “There will not be a drastic increase tomorrow or within a week,” he noted.
The trend of rising prices is evident across Europe, with some gas stations reportedly running out of fuel. Kuyun also pointed out a severe shortage in Asia, where long lines have formed at filling stations.
Despite the global fuel crisis, Kuyun emphasized that Ukraine is not expected to face a fuel shortage. In March, the country imported a record 577,000 tons of fuel, the highest since 2021, which has created a reasonable inventory for April. Additionally, all retail networks have secured contracts for the month. Although sales are declining, this is not immediately visible on the roads.
He further confirmed that gasoline supplies in Ukraine remain adequate. “Fuel will be available; the question of pricing remains open,” Kuyun concluded.
European diesel prices have soared to historic highs, affecting Ukraine's fuel costs. Despite the surge, experts predict no immediate fuel shortages in Ukraine, although prices are expected to rise significantly.