Experts are warning that a return to lower price caps in the electricity market could lead to reduced generation during critical hours and exacerbate existing shortages. Current price levels are seen as essential for maintaining operations, particularly for gas generation, which plays a crucial role during peak demand periods.
Vladimir Kharchenko, a prominent energy expert, stated, “If I were making the decisions, I would eliminate the price caps entirely. However, I would ensure that they remain in place for now.” He emphasized that high price caps provide economic incentives for producers to stay in the energy system amidst a supply deficit.
Kharchenko cautioned that if price limits are lowered administratively, some generation capacity could exit the market due to unprofitability. He elaborated, “If the price cap is artificially reverted while gas prices remain high, the question arises: why would I operate at a loss? I would simply stop production.”
This scenario could not only reduce electricity generation but also increase strain on the energy system during peak consumption hours. Kharchenko advocates for maintaining the current price caps as a minimum requirement for stable market operations in the face of ongoing shortages.
He warned that lowering price restrictions under current conditions could have the opposite effect of what is intended—rather than controlling prices, it could lead to a decrease in electricity supply and complicate system balancing.
In January 2026, the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NERC) raised price caps in short-term market segments. Industry analysts noted that this decision expanded import capabilities and increased electricity imports from Europe during periods of deficit, largely due to damage to energy infrastructure from Russian attacks.
However, the January decision was intended to be temporary, and according to NERC regulations, price caps are set to revert to previous levels by March 31.
Additionally, energy market expert Volodymyr Halushchak highlighted that lowering price caps could directly affect import volumes and introduce further risks to the energy system during deficit periods.
Experts are expressing concerns that reducing electricity price caps could worsen supply shortages and strain the energy system during peak hours. Current price levels are deemed necessary to keep generation operational, particularly for gas, amid ongoing deficits.