The ongoing conflict in Ukraine may enter a new phase this autumn if the current Russian military offensive fails to achieve its objectives. According to Ukrainian officials, this scenario could lead to a cessation of active hostilities and the lifting of martial law.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Ukrainian President’s Office, stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is currently pursuing a summer offensive aimed at capturing additional territory. However, early indications suggest that this campaign is not meeting its intended goals.
Podolyak highlighted two primary objectives that the Kremlin is fixated on: the capture of Kupiansk and Mala Tokmachka. He noted, “He is conducting a summer offensive and believes he can achieve the possibility of capturing either Mala Tokmachka or Kupiansk. He has two persistent ideas. Therefore, if this fails, there may be a halt to the active phase of the war in the autumn,” Podolyak explained.
Should the Russian offensive falter, the Ukrainian President’s Office envisions a transition towards conflict resolution. This would involve several key stages:
- Ceasefire – a complete halt to missile and drone strikes, as well as active combat operations along the front lines;
- Position Stabilization – the establishment of a delineation line and a freeze on the conflict;
- Monitoring – the implementation of oversight mechanisms and the involvement of international mediators.
Podolyak added that such a development would allow Ukraine to lift martial law and begin preparations for elections.
Ukrainian officials suggest that if the Russian summer offensive fails, the conflict may transition to a ceasefire and resolution phase, allowing for the lifting of martial law and election preparations. Key objectives for Russia include capturing Kupiansk and Mala Tokmachka, but early signs indicate these efforts may not succeed.