The recent adjustments to electricity price caps in Ukraine could significantly affect import volumes and pose additional risks to the energy system during periods of shortage.
Experts indicate that the price relationship between Ukrainian and European markets is crucial for imports. When the maximum price in Ukraine is substantially lower than in EU countries, importing electricity becomes economically unfeasible.
“If the maximum price on the Ukrainian market is much lower than potential prices in neighboring Central and Eastern European markets, imports may lose their economic attractiveness,” explained Galushchak.
He noted that during winter months, prices in European markets can exceed €120-150 per MWh, making stringent price caps a direct barrier to imports into Ukraine.
Galushchak also highlighted risks associated with specific supply routes, particularly from Slovakia and Hungary, where availability can be influenced by both economic and political factors.
In such conditions, any additional restrictions, including low price caps, only exacerbate the system’s vulnerability.
Seasonal factors further complicate the situation. During the summer, electricity consumption increases, while a portion of nuclear generation is typically taken offline for maintenance.
If these factors combine with limited imports and strict price caps, the market may face additional shortages.
In January 2026, the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NKREKP) raised price caps in the short-term market segments. This temporary decision was aimed at facilitating electricity imports.
Industry analysts suggest that this move has allowed for expanded import channels and increased electricity imports from Europe during periods of shortage, particularly following damage to energy infrastructure due to Russian attacks.
Previously, Andrian Prokip, a doctor of economic sciences and head of energy programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, stated that record imports during this challenging winter were made possible by the revision of price caps.
The adjustment of electricity price caps in Ukraine raises concerns about the impact on imports and the overall stability of the energy system, particularly during peak consumption periods. Experts warn that low price caps could hinder economic feasibility for imports, exacerbating vulnerabilities in the energy supply chain.