The official exchange rate of the dollar in Ukraine could rise to 45 hryvnias by the end of 2026, although experts do not foresee any immediate currency shocks. Key factors contributing to the stability of the hryvnia include international financial assistance, the National Bank’s interest rate decisions, and currency interventions.
Main Points:
- Experts predict the dollar may reach 45 UAH by year-end.
- In May, the expected range is between 43.8 and 44.8 UAH per dollar.
- A 90 billion euro aid package from the EU could support the hryvnia.
- The National Bank may raise the key interest rate to stabilize the currency.
- Ongoing risks include trade deficits and external shocks.
Economist and professor at Lviv Polytechnic, Olexiy Druhov, stated that the arrival of EU aid tranches will be crucial for stabilizing the exchange rate. He noted that these funds would bolster the National Bank’s international reserves, enabling the regulator to better manage currency fluctuations.
Another potential stabilizing factor is an increase in the National Bank’s key interest rate. Analysts speculate that during the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on April 28-29, the bank might raise the rate from 15% to 15.5-16%, making hryvnia deposits more attractive and reducing demand for foreign currency.
According to Serhiy Mamedov, head of Globus Bank, fluctuations in the dollar are expected to remain within the 43.8-44.8 UAH range in May. In the second quarter, analysts from KSE Institute anticipate the official rate to be around 44.5 UAH per dollar, while Concorde Capital suggests that by late June, the dollar could trade between 44 and 44.5 UAH.
Most analysts surveyed agree that the dollar could approach 45 hryvnias by year-end, indicating a gradual devaluation rather than a sharp decline of the hryvnia.
Risks impacting the hryvnia include:
- Increasing trade deficits;
- Declining exports of metal products;
- Rising import costs;
- Geopolitical risks and energy prices.
Additionally, the situation in the Middle East has already contributed to the rising values of the dollar and euro.
Experts predict the Ukrainian hryvnia may weaken to 45 UAH per dollar by the end of the year, driven by various economic factors and potential EU aid. Analysts emphasize a gradual devaluation rather than sudden currency shocks, while risks such as trade deficits and geopolitical tensions remain significant.