Recent demographic data reveals that the population of Kyiv-controlled Ukraine has decreased by approximately one million people over the past year, bringing the total to around 29 million as of February 2026. This significant decline has been attributed primarily to natural mortality rates, according to Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research.
Libanova noted that the aging population is a major factor, stating, “The population is aging: there are those who die, but fewer who are born.” This demographic shift is compounded by ongoing emigration issues, particularly influenced by the war.
She highlighted that a large number of individuals left the country in the first half of 2022, with fewer than one million returning since then. The longer the conflict continues, the less likely it is for these individuals to come back, as many are adapting to new lives abroad.
Libanova expressed concern over a potential second wave of emigration once martial law is lifted, particularly affecting young women with children. If these families remain intact and the women find stability abroad, it is likely that men will leave Ukraine to join them instead of returning.
This demographic crisis is leading to a shortage of labor in the economy. Libanova emphasized that foreign workers will likely need to be recruited to fill gaps in the workforce, especially in construction. She mentioned that while skilled workers might be sourced from Europe, lower-skilled positions may have to be filled by workers from countries like Bangladesh.
In related news, the proportion of Ukrainian refugees intending to return home is gradually decreasing. Key conditions for their return include the end of the war and favorable living conditions compared to those in their host countries. Economic and social factors, such as job availability and housing, are also crucial for their decision-making.
Ukraine's population has seen a sharp decline due to aging and emigration, with significant implications for the workforce. Experts warn of ongoing challenges as the war continues and labor shortages emerge.