Russian oil prices have experienced a significant increase in March and April, primarily attributed to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The price of Urals crude oil, which is sold at Western ports in Russia, averaged $106.30 per barrel in April, marking a 42% rise from March.
The ongoing crisis in the Middle East has pushed the Urals price well above the $59 per barrel projected in Russia’s budget for 2026. According to calculations by Bloomberg based on government data, the average price of Urals crude rose to 6,191 rubles in March.
If the average price remains stable in April and the exchange rate does not change, the price of Urals oil could increase to approximately 8,300 rubles this month, the highest level since March 2022.
Despite the rise in oil prices, Russia may face challenges in ramping up production in the near term due to damage to its port and energy infrastructure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that the country’s daily crude oil output in March was only 9 million barrels, which is 230,000 barrels less than the same period last year.
Russian oil prices have surged significantly due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with Urals crude reaching $106.30 per barrel in April. However, production challenges may hinder Russia's ability to capitalize on these higher prices.