A recent report by Project Eleven highlights the significant risks posed by quantum computing to the security of digital assets, banking systems, and military communications. The findings suggest that more than $3 trillion in digital assets could become vulnerable to theft within the next four to seven years.
The report emphasizes that the digital asset sector relies heavily on elliptic curve digital signatures, a cryptographic method susceptible to quantum attacks. This vulnerability extends beyond cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum; it also affects critical infrastructures such as banking systems, cloud services, and military communications.
Project Eleven’s 110-page analysis, presented by CEO Alex Pruden at Consensus Miami 2026, warns that powerful quantum computers could utilize Shor’s algorithm to extract private keys from public keys. This capability would enable malicious actors to forge signatures and gain unauthorized access to digital accounts secured by elliptic curve cryptography.
The report introduces the concept of “Q-Day,” the anticipated arrival of quantum computers capable of breaching widely used public-key cryptography. According to the findings, Q-Day could occur as early as 2030, with a likelihood of happening no later than 2033. “Our analysis suggests that, based on current trends, Q-Day is more likely to occur than not by 2033, and potentially even as soon as 2030,” the report states. This timeline raises concerns about the urgency of transitioning to post-quantum cryptography.
Transitioning to secure networks is complicated, as large systems typically require five to ten years for migration, depending on their complexity. Additionally, the report highlights the challenges of coordinating a simultaneous transition among all stakeholders, including users, exchanges, custodians, wallet providers, and miners.
Project Eleven asserts that the primary obstacle is not technical but rather a matter of coordination, urgency, and the willingness to incur migration costs. The report notes the slow and often contentious nature of upgrades within the Bitcoin network, citing the Bitcoin SegWit upgrade as an example that took over two years to implement and led to a divisive chain split.
Pruden and Chief Technology Officer Conor Deegan express concerns that Bitcoin’s migration to post-quantum cryptography could be even more challenging than previous upgrades. Coordinated action across various stakeholders will be essential for a successful transition. Pruden also mentioned the idea of “recycling” vulnerable Bitcoin tokens, valued at approximately $500 billion, back into the supply curve to mitigate risks posed by potential quantum attacks.
Ultimately, the report acknowledges the tension between Bitcoin’s fixed-supply philosophy and its commitment to property rights, highlighting the complexities of navigating this emerging threat.
Project Eleven's report warns that quantum computing poses a significant risk to over $3 trillion in digital assets and critical infrastructures. The anticipated arrival of quantum computers capable of breaching current cryptographic methods could necessitate urgent migration to post-quantum security measures.