In Ukraine, the share of the shadow tobacco market has stabilized at 17.6%, a slight decrease from 17.8% recorded in October 2025. Despite this stability, officials express concerns that efforts to combat illegal tobacco sales have not been sufficient.
Danilo Hetmantsev, a member of parliament, noted, “There are no victories, but it is good that the situation has stabilized. However, it is too early to relax. One in six cigarette packs on the market remains illegal. The budget losses from the illegal market are estimated at 28.1 billion UAH per year, an increase of 1.6 billion UAH.”
Hetmantsev also pointed out a growing segment of tobacco products that are officially labeled as Duty Free or for export but are being sold illegally within Ukraine. This category has risen to 7.7%, up from 6.2% in October 2025. Over half of these products, according to packaging, are linked to the Vynnyky Tobacco Factory (57%), while a significant portion (41%) is associated with Marshall Finest Tobacco.
Research conducted by Kantar reveals that two-thirds of all illegal tobacco products are concentrated in seven regions of Ukraine:
- Dnipropetrovsk – 19%
- Odesa – 10%
- Kharkiv and Kirovohrad – 9% (with Kirovohrad making its debut on this list)
- Lviv – 8%
- Khmelnytskyi – 7%
- Kyiv and Kyiv region – 5%
The structure of sales channels remains consistent, with 64% of illegal tobacco products sold through kiosks and shops in 2026, compared to 65% in 2025.
Hetmantsev concluded that current measures to tackle the illegal tobacco market are inadequate, emphasizing the need for a stronger crackdown on underground production and illegal distribution. He urged the newly established Bureau of Economic Security to demonstrate its effectiveness in addressing these issues.
Ukraine's shadow tobacco market holds steady at 17.6%, with concerns over insufficient measures to combat illegal sales. A significant portion of illegal products is linked to specific manufacturers, highlighting the need for enhanced regulatory efforts.