Kyrilo Budanov, the current head of the Presidential Office and former chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence, forecasted the Russian invasion well before it occurred. In November 2021, he provided a detailed account of how the attack would unfold.
According to journalist Sam Altman, Budanov explicitly stated that an invasion was imminent and accurately described the operational plans of the Kremlin. This assertion is backed by a four-year-old article where Budanov outlined Russia’s strategy for a large-scale offensive, which included airborne assaults and multi-directional advances.
In a November 21, 2021 interview, Budanov indicated that Russia had amassed over 92,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders, preparing for a significant offensive that could begin in late January or early February 2022. He warned that the assault would involve airstrikes, artillery bombardments, and armored advances, alongside amphibious landings in eastern regions, particularly in Odesa and Mariupol, as well as a smaller incursion through Belarus.
He cautioned that the impending Russian offensive would be far more devastating than any previous actions taken since the conflict began in 2014.
Recent reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlight that Belarus has solidified its role as a strategic launchpad for Russian military operations. Experts note that the Kremlin is not only utilizing Belarusian infrastructure to target western Ukraine but is also aiming to expand its capabilities to threaten NATO countries.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has echoed these concerns, warning that even if a peace agreement is reached with Kyiv, NATO could be the next target of Russian aggression. Budanov has suggested that following the conflict in Ukraine, Russia may set its sights on the Baltic states.
Kyrilo Budanov, Ukraine's intelligence chief, accurately predicted the details of the Russian invasion in late 2021, warning of a large-scale offensive. Reports indicate Belarus is being used as a strategic base for further Russian military actions, raising concerns about potential threats to NATO countries.