Historical patterns suggest that bitcoin bear markets typically last between 12 to 13 months, indicating a possible downturn extending into late 2026 when priced in U.S. dollars. This perspective is supported by Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil’s largest cryptocurrency exchange.
Bitcoin’s most recent peak in dollar terms occurred in October 2025, reaching approximately $126,000. If the current cycle adheres to historical trends, the market may not stabilize until late 2026, as outlined in Szuster’s report shared with CoinDesk.
However, when evaluating bitcoin’s performance against gold, the timeline for a potential market bottom appears sooner. Bitcoin reached its peak against gold in January 2025. Following the same 12- to 13-month trend, a potential bottom could emerge around February 2026, with a recovery phase possibly commencing in March.
This discrepancy in timelines reflects broader macroeconomic factors. Since the onset of Donald Trump’s new mandate, the markets have encountered aggressive trade tariffs, domestic disputes within the U.S., and escalating tensions with nations such as China and Iran, the latter of which has led to ongoing military conflict.
The World Uncertainty Index has surged as a result of these dynamics. Gold has benefitted from this environment, appreciating over 80% in the past year to reach $5,280. As investors shifted their capital towards gold, bitcoin experienced a decline against it sooner than it did against the dollar, according to Mercado Bitcoin’s analysis.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also contributed to the downward pressure on bitcoin. Since November, approximately $7.8 billion has exited spot bitcoin ETFs, representing around 12% of the total $61.6 billion market.
Despite this fear-driven sell-off, the situation is not entirely negative. Large-scale investors, often referred to as “whales,” are viewing the current downturn as an opportunity for accumulation. Notably, investment firms such as Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments from Abu Dhabi have increased their exposure to spot bitcoin ETFs in mid-February.
In light of these developments, Szuster advises investors to adopt a strategic approach, employing dollar-cost averaging to navigate the current market climate. He emphasizes that historically, purchasing during periods of market fear has proven more effective than buying during times of euphoria. “Does this mean it’s already the bottom? No. But it means that, statistically, we are in the zone where the best average prices are usually built,” he stated.
Bitcoin's potential market bottom may occur as early as February 2026, according to historical trends and analysis from Mercado Bitcoin. While recent sell-offs have pressured the cryptocurrency, large investors are seizing the opportunity to accumulate assets.