Oil futures in London have reached a seven-month high of $73 per barrel following the onset of military operations and Tehran’s announcement of its readiness to respond. According to Bloomberg, this marks a significant increase of 19% since the beginning of the year, driven by sanctions, production disruptions, stockpiling in China, and concerns over potential new attacks.
In light of escalating tensions, OPEC+ countries are expected to reassess their plans during a meeting on Sunday. Instead of a modest increase in production after a three-month pause, exporters may consider a more substantial boost in supply to stabilize the market.
Ukraine’s dependence on imported oil products means that any price fluctuations in Europe will directly impact domestic consumers. Alexander Sirenko noted that if oil prices continue to rise, fuel prices at Ukrainian gas stations will also increase.
Conversely, if global prices decrease, fuel costs should theoretically drop as well. However, local networks in Ukraine are often reluctant to lower prices, citing the need to sell off existing stock, as highlighted by an expert in comments to RBC-Ukraine.
Despite these developments, it is premature for Ukrainians to panic over fuel prices. Making accurate predictions about gasoline and diesel costs is currently challenging, as the market could stabilize quickly. An expert referenced the U.S. operation in Venezuela, a country with the largest oil reserves, where analysts anticipated drastic price fluctuations. However, the market opened with unchanged prices after the weekend, showing no immediate reaction to the conflict.
“We will see what happens on Monday with the final reports. Based on those figures, we will decide on our next purchases,” the expert concluded.
Oil prices have surged to a seven-month high amid military tensions, prompting OPEC+ to reconsider production strategies. Ukraine's fuel prices are likely to be affected by these changes, but experts advise caution in making predictions.