The situation for Ukraine’s Defense Forces has reportedly improved significantly since June of the previous year, aided by spring weather that complicates Russian troop movements.
According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlighted that the enemy had previously exploited poor visibility during fog to conduct attacks and infiltrations, a tactic that hindered Ukrainian drone operations while allowing Russian ground maneuvers.
ISW’s report noted that Ukraine has achieved tactical and operational successes that could lead to strategic implications by late winter 2025 and early spring.
Furthermore, Ukrainian forces began to secure substantial tactical victories in southern Ukraine by the end of January 2026, creating cascading operational effects on the front lines. This situation has forced Russian forces to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks or reallocating personnel and resources to other sectors of the front.
Earlier assessments by ISW suggested that Ukrainian counteroffensives might disrupt Russian plans for a spring-summer 2026 offensive campaign.
The report also pointed out that Russian officials have repeatedly attempted to propagate a false narrative suggesting that Ukrainian front lines are on the verge of collapse, aiming to persuade the West to capitulate to Russian demands that cannot be met militarily. However, recent Ukrainian successes indicate that a collapse is not imminent.
Additionally, the report emphasized that Ukraine’s technological innovations are increasingly yielding results against Russia. In March 2026 alone, Ukrainian drone strikes reportedly killed or severely injured 33,988 Russian soldiers, while artillery and other attacks eliminated an additional 1,363 occupiers.
Recent reports indicate that Ukraine's Defense Forces have made significant tactical advancements, particularly in southern regions, while improved weather conditions hinder Russian operations. The findings suggest a shift in momentum that could impact future military strategies for both sides.
Source: Institute for the Study of War