““On the eve of a large-scale invasion, the Russians purchased optical sights in France – all this has now come under sanctions” Speaking of replenishment…”, — write on: armyinform.com.ua
Read for: 4 min. November 13, 2024, 7:01 am
Vitaly Solony’s collage / ArmiyaInform Defense forces of Ukraine continue to actively destroy enemy equipment on the battlefield. But what stocks of anti-aircraft missiles do the Russians have today and how quickly do they restore damaged equipment? Viktor Kevlyuk, an expert at the Center for Defense Strategies, said: “On the eve of a large-scale invasion, the Russians purchased optical sights in France – all this has now come under sanctions” If we talk about the replenishment of the enemy’s troops with combat equipment, then, for example, the entire tank repair industry of the Russian Federation, with joint efforts, produces about 150-160 tanks every month.
About 30% of them are the newest — those assembled from scratch at the Uralvagonzavod. All the rest are cars that have been restored after being knocked down in Ukraine. Or they are cars that were taken from storage, reanimated and sent to the front.
Accordingly, if the enemy produces 150-160 vehicles per month, they will collect 1,920 tanks in a year.
The Dutch site Oryx counts the losses of this war. But he counts not just the ones shot down in battle, but the completely destroyed machines that can no longer be restored. So, the Dutch counted a total of 3494 tanks destroyed by the Russians during the entire period of fighting.
That is, with a production rate of 1,920 tanks per year, the enemy covers its losses without problems. But there is one nuance. The tanks that are currently being used by the Russian army are older years of production. Because this is what is taken from storage, reanimated and supplied to units.
If we receive cars from the allies somewhere in the 70s-80s – if we are lucky, the first half of the 90s, then the enemy has them in the 60s. The difference in technical capabilities is obvious.
the Russian Federation does not produce tank sights at all. They buy them in Belarus. Joint-stock company “Peleng” takes care of their production. It collects 145 Sosna and 40 newest Sosna-U sights per year.
On the eve of a large-scale invasion, the Russians purchased optical sights in France. All this was sanctioned. Accordingly, you have to buy in Belarus.
According to the sights, it turns out that the Belarusians are able to provide for the Russians. the Russian Federation even has the ability to change broken sights on tanks and keep something in reserve.
“Israel crumbled everything into a fine vinaigrette” The situation in the Russian Federation is worse with artillery, because cannon barrels, first of all, are long. Secondly, it is a labor-intensive process. Thirdly, the machines that are necessary for drilling and cutting are high-precision equipment that cannot be bought so easily in the bazaar.
There were rumors that the Russians bought 10 machines through Austria. But there are less than a hundred such machines throughout Russia. And the need for cannon barrels is thousands. Therefore, you can take what is in stock, repair it and give it to the troops.
Therefore, no one cancels the concept of “metal fatigue”. The laws of physics apply. What was in storage will definitely have a shorter service life.
Separately, it is necessary to say about the means of anti-aircraft defense of the enemy. It was already known in 2022 that the Russians lack workers at factories.
Russia produces such devices, but these are high-tech systems that require a lot of components, radio electronics, and processors. And they are not produced in the Russian Federation.
Accordingly, all of this is imported through gray routes, using very long supply chains. It is far from always military products, it can be purely civilian radio electronics, and it has other, for example, temperature ranges…
And accordingly, they can do something with air defense, but it will take a long time. And as we knock out their anti-aircraft missile systems, it becomes more and more difficult for the enemy to replenish them.
Plus, friends from Iran urgently asked for S-300. the Russians took them in Crimea and sent them to the Ayatollahs. Then Israel flew there, crumbled everything into a fine vinaigrette. All five of the five long-range radar stations were destroyed.
Ayatollah says: “Well, guys, give me more, because we need it, because they will fly again.” And the Russians are on such a normal split now: either for themselves or for their allies. But the allies gave the Russians ammunition of scarce nomenclature, for example, 115-mm shells for T-62 tanks, which have a specific gun with such a strange caliber.
“the Russians are already involving Belarusian specialists to restore the MiG-29” British intelligence estimates that the enemy will exhaust its reserves of armored vehicles – tanks and armored fighting vehicles – by the fall of 2025. Next, probably, cavalry, bicycles, what else could be there… We have already seen electric scooters.
But we cannot talk about the fact that the Russian defense industry is on the verge of collapse. It still has considerable potential.
Their much bigger problem is the lack of skilled labor. Also, these are problems with components, which are becoming more and more difficult to obtain. After all, the expert community and volunteers monitor what and where it comes from, and through diplomatic and not quite diplomatic ways, data about this is provided to partners, and such schemes are cut off wherever they can be discovered.
Therefore, this is precisely what will restrain the Russian defense industry. They are now at their maximum capacity. So what should they do to implement the fourth shift? Well, the world is not made of rubber. Switch to an eight-day work week? But they have already switched to a seven-day one.
In the area of the same Uralvagonzavod in Nizhny Tagil, in 2023, they began to build a zone where it was supposed to concentrate specialists with technical skills who are serving sentences under any articles. Probably, in order to attract them to work at the tank factory.
Therefore, they have already exhausted all the possibilities that the Russians have. There is no possibility to increase something. In particular, regarding aviation: because they are already involving Belarusian specialists to restore the MiG-29.
Therefore, in my opinion, we will not see the collapse of the Russian defense industry, but we will see a certain stagnation.
