“The political scientist, the head of the national anti -crisis group, Taras Zagorodniy, told UNIAN why the blackouts of the Blackas to the Russians need more than Ukrainians, and how it is possible to provoke a “rebellion” in Russia, “disabled” Moscow alone.”, – WRITE: www.unian.ua
You can view the interview video at the link.
In anticipation of the deterioration of weather conditions, Russia resorts to traditional tactics: it is trying to hit as much energy objects in Ukraine as possible to leave Ukrainians without light and heat. But, unlike 2022, in 2025 it also beats gas infrastructure.
UNIAN spoke with a political scientist who is a leading partner of the national anti -crisis group, Taras Zagorodny, whether Ukrainians should prepare for blackberries against the background of cold winter, or whether the cold and dark winter is waiting for the Russians themselves.
The most massive Russian blows to Ukrainian energy, traditionally, are at the beginning of the cold. In your opinion, in the fall of 2025 in this sense is different from the previous ones?
Of course, it is different. After all, in 2022, no one knew what would happen, the Russians’ tactics were not understood regarding the blows of energy infrastructure-where they would be beat, what they want to damage, what the damage would be, what the reaction would be. However, a serious blackout for several days happened only then.
It was indeed an emergency, and thanks to the incredible efforts of our energymen who were able to cope with it, we, in principle, had no global problems. Further, there was an opportunity to organize assistance from both the European Union and the United States …
At the same time, the Russians have changed tactics – now they are trying to knock out cities (especially border) to make them unsuitable for life. Therefore, we see attacks on Chernihiv, Sumy, Kherson and more. But I think it was an expected story. Therefore, Ukraine still has experience and some prepared reserves, stocks to respond promptly to the situation and repair and restore everything.
Zagorodniy says that Russians are now beating on gas production / screenshotThe fact that the Russians have been trying for the fourth year to leave Ukrainians without light, really, expected. However, it seems that they now plan to leave us without gas – they began to beat more often on the Ukrainian gas infrastructure, too. How is the crisis situation for us?
In fact, they now beat gas production – both private and public, that we do not have enough gas. But for the Russians there is a big problem that, in principle, gas also has the opportunity to import from abroad, and in Ukrainian gas storage can be pumped up to 30 billion cubic meters. After all, for example, there is a country such as Norway, which is a huge gas producer and can close some issues of Ukraine about providing (I think that in this direction work is already underway). There is only money only here.
It is more dangerous for Ukraine if the Russians begin, first of all, to demolish gas distribution networks in order to freeze cities. But here for the Russians is not all great for the Russians: Ukraine has the opportunity to answer it.
That is, if there is a blackout in Kiev, will be in Moscow?
The president has already said it. And the demonstration has already taken place in Belgorod. At the same time, the problem of Russians is that in 2022, Ukrainians purchased many generators, we have simplified opportunities for the construction of decentralized energy, etc., and in Russia there is no. And you can easily be left without light and without heat.
Moreover, when the mayor of Belgorod tells that, they say, we will now put generators, there is a nuance here, as in anecdote. If the generators themselves are the Chinese to the Russians still, where will you get fuel for them? In this direction, a very good work of Ukrainian special services has been carried out, so in Russia even a diesel is already in a shortage. And the Russians are not used to it.
In addition, we will not forget that, however, Ukraine is a southern country in which cold winter is possible, at the same time Russia is a northern country, and there is a cold winter there. So, who will be more affected by the tactics of energy knocking out is a big question.
Russian residents are very disliked by Moscow as a subject that pumps resources from all over the country / photo pixabay.comYou mentioned Belgorod, but it seems that in Moscow somehow the problems of regions are still. Something like anecdote, when the money is over and the son says to Dad: “Now you will drink less?”, And in response he hears, “No, now you will eat less.” That is, is the lack of electricity in Belgorod somehow can actually affect Moscow?
In fact, we have the opportunity to organize a civil war in Russia by arranging Blackout just Moscow. The question here is the nature of the Russians. They are very disliked by Moscow as an entity that pumps resources from all over the country. And what if there is no light and warmth, for example, a week? I suspect that half Russia will rob it.
And we have to stimulate it. For example, put before the choice of Russian soldiers. Like that it is more important to you: to die in the territory of Ukraine, or to rob ruble?
Considering that in Russia everything is centralized, in the case of riots in Moscow, all power will pour.