What Should We Expect from This Week’s ECB Meeting?

Source: Eurostat, Scope Ratings No Further ECB Rate Reductions During 2025 The rating agency does not anticipate any further ECB rate reductions this year, but the ECB may keep its options open. The risk to the rating agency’s base case late this year or next year is for further easing rather than tightening. The direction of the next change in official rates hinges on factors such as inflation dynamics, the consequences of global trade tensions, the growth outlook and the euro exchange rate.

Any move in the euro meaningfully above 1.20 against the dollar as an example may provoke greater concerns. A significant drop in projected inflation for 2028 could push ECB policymakers to contemplate further easing. The rating agency’s expectation of corrections in bubbly financial markets may also raise pressure on the central bank.

US policy is crucial. The continuation of US rate reductions under market and political pressure may add growing pressure on European policymakers to also ease.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dennis Y. Shen is the Chair of the Macro Economic Council and Lead Global Economist of Scope Group. The rating agency’s Macroeconomic Council brings together the company’s credit opinions from multiple issuer classes: sovereign and public sector, financial institutions, corporates, structured finance and project finance.