“Stupak noted that the use of Oreshnyk was a gesture of desperation for Putin.”, — write: www.unian.ua
Stupak noted that the use of Oreshnyk was a gesture of desperation for Putin.
An expert explained how the use of a new Russian missile can affect the course of the war / photo UNIANRussian dictator Vladimir Putin said that on November 21, Russia hit the city of Dnipro with a medium-range missile using “the latest Oreshnik missile system with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead.” He called this strike “a response to the recent strikes by ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory.” In an interview with UNIAN, military expert and former SBU employee Ivan Stupak told whether Ukraine is capable of shooting down such missiles and whether their use can somehow change the course of the war.Are the Patriot systems capable of dealing with Oreshnyk, or should Ukraine ask the US for a THAAD mobile anti-missile complex for high-altitude transatmospheric interception?
As far as I understand, only these THAAD complexes are needed, because they can shoot down targets at altitude, see when they are approaching. But they are very expensive, they cost 3 billion dollars, we do not have the funds to buy them. The Patriot appears to be able to shoot down individual warheads. But if there are 30 of them there, not a single Patriot will be enough, because they must be shot down at the stage when they have not yet opened.
Can the Russian Federation regularly start using such missiles on a par with the Kh-23 and others?
If they have them, of course they can. It is still unclear to the end.
Could the current escalation be an accelerated, shall we say, prelude to negotiations involving Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Putin to end the war?
Maybe Unfortunately, this window, until the old administration in the USA has left and the new one has not begun to fulfill its duties, will be the most unpleasant for us. The old administration no longer wants to deal with these issues at all, and the new one is in no hurry to deal with them.
Can it be considered that the launch of the ICBM was a kind of show? And for whom: for Trump, for us?
I don’t think it was a show. This was in response to the ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes. As soon as the Russians signed the changes to their nuclear doctrine, on the same day Ukraine attacked the Kursk region. It is clear that in this case, Putin looks very weak in his environment, among his fellow dictators. And he needed to do something, it was too much for him to simply “swallow” again, Ukraine violated the “red lines” many times.
The second component is that we show off our production capacities too much. Our officials boasted that we have our own missiles, we manufacture them, that there is a “Palyanytsia”, various drones, and a certain amount will be produced next year. It is clear that the Russians know where we make them, so they decided to respond and destroy the capabilities.
What will be the reaction to Russia’s use of ICBMs by our Western partners, in particular, Trump? Can we, for example, provide Tomahawk missiles? Will there be nothing before the inauguration?
Apart from anxiety, there is nothing to expect. Until Trump takes office, there is no need to expect anything. Tomahawk will not be provided to us, there are restrictions on the transfer of weapons to us.
To what extent can Russia’s use of the Oreshnyk system change the situation at the front and in the war in general?
If the Russians have a lot of them, and they will be ready to strike with them, then this can change the situation. If they destroy our missile program, then, of course, it will not be sweet, because we are not very well dressed anyway, and we will be standing without socks at all.
If these ICBMs fly somewhere else, and the charge will still be nuclear, will Putin not “spit” in the face of the leaders of China and India, who urged him not to use nuclear weapons?
It is theoretically possible that he can do it. The probability of this is higher than zero, but I see the use of this missile as a gesture of desperation. It was an attempt to at least do something, at least somehow reach out to “Pivdenmash” in order to stop Ukrainian production.
If the Western press is to be believed, then China is very tough on Russia regarding the use of nuclear weapons, that this is the ace that should never lie on the table. I want to believe that China has not changed its position. Nuclear countries do not fight with nuclear weapons. For example, when Israel attacks Iran, it does not use nuclear weapons, it fights conventionally.
If the world remains silent about the use of ICBMs, can Putin afford to strike Europe? He also said that some countries that gave their missiles to Ukraine actually entered the war.
I think not, this is an unnecessary threat. And Putin is perfectly aware that the Europeans have a significant advantage – anti-missile defense. Western countries have always had an advantage over the Soviet Union, and over the Russian Federation, precisely in anti-missile defense systems. The Russians have always been complex about this. For example, Patriot can shoot down even the most modern Russian missiles, although it seemed that these systems are old. The Russians are perfectly aware that they cannot just attack and destroy something on the territory of Europe, the anti-missile defense will not allow them to do this. Another question – what the Europeans are ready to answer, remains open.