We expect a significant increase in yields compared to last year – NBU

The National Bank of Ukraine expects a significant increase in crop yields compared to last year, which will contribute to a slowdown in food inflation in the second half of 2025. This was stated by Deputy Head of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk during a briefing, reports UNN.

According to crop forecasts, we have not changed our estimates compared to January. We slightly improved for grain crops, slightly worsened for oil crops. In general, we expect a significant increase in crop yields compared to last year, which should contribute to a slowdown in food inflation in the second half of the year.

He noted that the NBU, for example, expects an increase in the grain harvest by 12%, for oil crops – by 10%, for vegetables and potatoes – by 17%.

Of course, spring frosts and possible prolonged periods of drought in the future may negatively affect the yield of individual products. This may cause some pressure on prices. We consider this as a risk. At the same time, in our opinion, this risk is less than last year, because after prices rose quite significantly for these products, the potential for further price increases will be limited by relevant imports.

According to him, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, there are no significant damage to crops from frosts.

Recall During the first quarter of 2025, inflation is expected to increase and reached 14.6% in annual terms in March. However, according to the forecast, it will return to decline in the summer and slow down to a single-digit level by the end of the year.