Vladimir Fesenko: Zelensky cannot be allowed Putin to drag Trump to his side

Photo: president.gov.ua

The last two Summites – Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska and the talks of Vladimir Zelensky with an American leader in Washington – allegedly open the way to trilateral negotiations between US leaders, Ukraine and Russia. However, what are the consequences of this in practice? Psychological confrontation between Ukrainian and Russian leaders? Whose side will Donald Trump bow? What tactical tricks will apply a Russian dictator and how to avoid them Vladimir Zelensky? On these and other questions Briefly about replies Political scientist, head of the Center for Applied Political Research “Penta” Vladimir Fesenko.

Trump’s priority is the termination of war and the status of the peacekeeper – Can I call Zelensky with Trump a recent summit with Trump?

Political scientist Vladimir Fesenko. Photo: Nexta.tv/

– Mostly so, though not without reservations. In fact, there are two main reasons for optimistic conclusions. First, judging from official statements, including Trump himself, there was no open pressure, demanding unilateral, including territorial, concessions from Ukraine. Zelensky did not concede and does not intend to do it. Second, the process of specifying security guarantees for our country is initiated, which is critical.

The informal achievement was the partial strengthening of Trump’s position against Ukraine. Sumits on Alaska and Washington were a clash for influencing the American leader. He is currently taking into account Kyiv’s position on the rejection of peace on Russian conditions.

– Ukraine plans to purchase US weapons for 100 billion for European financing. Will this Agreement help attract Trump to our side?

– partly – yes, but not completely. The main interest of the US President is to complete the conflict and obtain an image of a peacemaker. The second purpose is economic penetration into Ukraine through resource agreements. In addition, it can seek control of the Zaporizhzhya NPP. The purchase of weapons for a considerable amount, of course, is beneficial for the US and is in interests.

However, even under such conditions, Trump will not defend Ukrainian positions. His views on the end of the war remain unstable. In the first six months of the second term, he changed the approach four times, fluctuating between the idea of a truce and a full -fledged agreement.

It is worth understanding: Trump does not feel much sympathy for Ukraine. He is more interested in strategic interaction with Putin. But he is aware that peace is unacceptable only on Russian conditions for Kiev and European allies. Therefore, it will look for compromises, not completely translating to our position.

– When it comes to security guarantees, what forms can they take – weapons or military alliances?

-The ideal scenario would be the use of NATO’s 5th Articles on Collective Protection. However, this is unlikely. Therefore, it is a large -scale supply of weapons as a “deterrent” or the placement of a European military contingent after completion of hostilities with logistics support for the United States. The third option is to conclude a strategic partnership with the United States on the model of agreements with Israel or South Korea. So far, these ideas are only discussed without specifics.

The Trilateral Summit for Zelensky will resemble walking on the blade – Putin has previously avoided formats with three participants. Is such a summit realistic now?

– Theoretically – yes, but there are significant risks. Zelensky expects that in Trump a Russian dictator will agree to the ceasefire. If Putin refuses, it will be an argument in favor of increasing pressure on Moscow. However, there is a danger that Trump, having exposed to the Kremlin, together with Putin will begin to demand territorial concessions from Ukraine.

– How should the Ukrainian President act in such negotiations?

– You need to find a balance as during the Washington meeting: to combine the principle with flexibility. It is important not to allow Trump to move to Putin’s side. This requires careful preparation for various scenarios: how to react to the support of Trump’s ideas of the Kremlin, how to avoid simultaneous pressure from both leaders.

– What strategy to choose in communication with Putin – confrontation or dialogue?

– The key is a combination of hardness and tactical skills. The most important thing is to prevent Trump’s alliance with Putin. He would advise NATO Rutte to be involved in the consultation of NATO Secretary General, which has an impact on the US leader. The four -sided format with the participation of Europeans would be optimal, but Russia will disagree.

The main thing is to avoid making decisions except the potential agreement on the truce. Even the unsuccessful summit would become a problem for Trump as a “peacemaker”, not for Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelensky should keep a balance with the US President and Western partners. Photo: president.gov.ua

Putin is a master of manipulation with the Soviet KGB School – What tactical traps can Putin use against Zelensky?

– He is not a diplomat, but a specialist in destructive techniques with the art of manipulation. He can offer “compromises” on Russian conditions, confuse Trump with details, play his ego. Putin’s task is to involve the American leader in realizing his version of peace.

– Are rumors to use Putin hypnotic methods in negotiations?

– There is no confirmation of this, but his manipulative skills are undeniable. He is able to use flattery, play the vanity of the interlocutors, exploit their weaknesses. Trump, on the contrary, does not understand the mechanisms of Putin’s influence and often designs his own motives on him.

– Will Trump be a neutral arbiter in trilateral negotiations or support Putin?

– His position remains unpredictable. For example, in early August, he threatened Russia’s sanctions and then dramatically changed the course. He is currently adhering to the idea of a peace agreement, albeit with illustrations of his own “success” in the stopping of conflicts that do not really correspond to reality.

Dictator Putin is a famous manipulator who knows how to find an approach to Trump. Photo: FB Donald J. Trump

Continue Europe to support Ukraine because of their own interests – How to maximize the benefit of a potential summit?

– If the negotiations enter a dead end, it is important that Trump realizes: the cause of the failure is Putin’s position. The danger is that accusations can be directed to Zelensky, so a clear communication strategy is required.

– Will Europe retain unity in support of Ukraine?

– Despite the position of Orban or Fitzo, Europeans demonstrated solidarity during Washington. The visit of seven leaders to the US is an unprecedented step. Ukraine’s support remains a priority because of its own security interests, not temporary political conditions.

– Is Europe able to completely replace the US in financing Ukraine?

– In economic aspect – yes. However, the EU weapons are entrusted to US supplies. Keeping the US as a strategic partner is critical for both parties. The struggle for Trump’s position will continue, and the future summit will not be the final point in this process.

European leaders will continue to stand on the side of Ukraine. Photo: president.gov.ua

Trumpa sympathy for Putin is a psychological anomaly – Why is Europe aware of the Russian threat and Trump is not?

– He is influenced by the illusions of Putin’s intentions and is fascinated by authoritarian regimes. His idea of Russia is distorted by personal preferences, which makes it vulnerable to the Kremlin’s manipulation.

– How will the situation develop if the summit does not produce results?

– The fighting will continue in parallel with the negotiations. The optimistic scenario is a step -by -step truce for preparation for the Nobel Prize of Trump. Pessimistic – the disruption of dialogue due to pressure on Ukraine on territorial concessions. The most likely option is to strengthen the focus negotiations on a specific program of action.

Source: kp.ua