“Product prices are steadily increasing. For several months in a row, Ukrainians have been witnessing the relentless rise in price of most foods and food products on the shelves of stores. According to the State Statistics Committee, annual inflation in Ukraine in 2024 was 12 percent. In particular, foods were riddled by 14%per year, which hurt the pockets of citizens, UNIAN writes. Last year”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
Product prices are steadily increasing. For several months in a row, Ukrainians have been witnessing the relentless rise in price of most foods and food products on the shelves of stores.
According to the State Statistics Committee, annual inflation in Ukraine in 2024 was 12 percent. In particular, foods were riddled by 14%per year, which hurt the pockets of citizens, UNIAN writes.
Last year, the largest prices for vegetables increased – by more than 48 percent, butter – by almost 34% and sunflower oil – by about 21 percent. Milk also increased significantly – by almost 19%, bread – more than 18%, fruits – more than 16%, as well as cheese – by more than 16 percent. Egg prices, which Ukrainians have been jokingly called “gold” because of their rapid rise in price, increased by more than 13%. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco have also grown in the price. As for fish and products from it, this category is up to 13 percent.
Utilities went up by almost 19 percent, in particular due to a significant increase in electricity tariffs for the population in June from UAH 2.64 to UAH 4.32/kWh. The cost of medical services has increased by more than 13%and transport – by just over 7 percent. In addition, educational services went up by 12%, and restaurants and hotel services – by more than 13 percent. They hit the pockets and communication services – they increased by more than 9%.
The negative dynamics of last year continued in January: experts report daily on rising prices for cucumbers, beets, cabbage, buckwheat and a number of other popular products. In addition, Ukrainians have to spend more communication, as all Ukrainian mobile operators from the new year have increased the cost of their services.
Most experts agree that one of the main reasons for the increase in food prices has been a bad harvest last year because of anomalous heat and drought.
“This has led to a lot less crop – in particular, 30% less potatoes. And this undoubtedly influenced the total volume of supply in the market, which provoked rise in prices, ”Pendzin notes.
But it is also worth noting less obvious factors that have influenced the increase in the cost of food baskets of Ukrainians. According to the Razumkov Center poll, 44 percent of Ukrainians began to buy the cheapest food and less attention to their quality. That is, almost half of Ukrainians are now forced to save on food.
Cheap foods are rising
Thus, the consumer basket is more likely to grow up to basic products, while prices for more expensive goods remain almost unchanged.
“The richer we are, the more we eat meat, dairy products and cheeses. The poorer, the more we eat bread and potatoes. Actually, this situation with increased demand in the cheap segment is just forming this additional demand, which leads to an increase in prices in a cheap segment, ”the expert says.
Inflation expectations
NBU Chairman Andriy Pyshny stated that in the first months of this year prices would probably continue to grow due to the further influence of low last year’s harvest, as well as due to the increase in the cost of industries. The National Bank predicts that inflation for 2025 will reach 8.4%. Its peak will fall in the second quarter, and from the middle of the year, according to the regulator, it will begin to decline.
Inflation will be facilitated by low yields, increasing electricity prices, as well as increasing tariffs for gas and electricity transportation for business, lighting light, devaluation of the hryvnia, increasing the cost of raw materials and lack of people in the labor market.
“The average monthly inflation can reach 13%per year. At the end of the year we go to inflation closer to 9%. In the basic scenario, the factors that will press on the cost, except for the devaluation of the hryvnia, are the weakness of the market. That is, the operating expenses of companies, raising taxes for the same FOPs, raising military fees, inclusion for the FOPs of a single social contribution. It will all be transferred to the end consumer, ”says Financial Analytist Shevchyshyn.
Increasing electricity tariffs
Another significant factor in the price of goods is, for example, the January increase in the tariff for the distribution of electricity for business. The expert also notes that there may be an increase in Ukrzaliznytsia tariffs for freight transportation, which will also inevitably affect the final prices for consumers, as companies will have to transfer these costs to buyers.
“In the second half of the year, as the new harvest is received, we will have a relief on the product basket,” Shevchyshyn said.
In addition, because of the war in Ukraine there is a moratorium on raising tariffs for hot water, heating and gas, but financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn notes that after the active fighting is completed, international partners will insist on increasing the cost of utilities to “economically justified levels” . This can mean a 30% or more communal growth, which will increase financial pressure on Ukrainians.
What will get up
Denis Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the All -Ukrainian Agrarian Council, confirmed that the main causes of products rise in 2024 were a combination of seasonality, economic factors and consequences of war.
“In fact, we will continue to grow in the range of 15%for the new season,” he shares his forecast and adds that the situation in the dairy market is also difficult.
Export restrictions to Europe have temporarily reduced the purchase prices for milk, but the final cost for consumers is unlikely to change due to tax innovations, in particular the increase in excise duties on fuel.
“Increasing excise duties on fuel and lubricants, which began since September, has not yet fully affected the market. Traders then had stocks at the old price, but since January, fuel prices will affect the cost of products and transportation costs, ”says Marchuk.
He also believes that there will probably not be such categories of products that will not rise before the new season.
Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn notes that, for example, dairy products are more expensive due to the increase in the cost of feed, and meat – due to the reduction of livestock and high costs for its maintenance. In 2024, meat prices were slowly increasing, this year the expert predicts their significant jump, which can lead to an increase in imports.
Forecasts for a future harvest
In his turn, an economic discussion club member, economist Oleg Pendzin, notes that food inflation in 2025 depends directly on how successful the year will be for Ukrainian farmers, but no one will now be able to make a forecast for this year’s yield.
“No one knows what will happen this summer. What will be the temperatures as it will affect the yield. By and large, food inflation in 2025 depends directly on the success of the agrarian year. But no one knows what will be there, ”the expert says.
Prices in stores
Ukrainian trading networks are also restrained in their forecasts for further rising prices.
“Price is a factor that depends on a number of conditions. These are, in particular, fluctuations in currency, weather, and logistics costs and more. The price is also affected by seasonality – for example, the price of meat and milk is always higher in winter than in summer, ”the ECO -Market supermarket network said in the press service.
They also note that the largest price increase in 2025 is demonstrated by a vegetable group (potatoes, carrots, beets). Also, the dairy group (milk, sour cream, oil) went up.
In addition, the supermarket network notes that, despite inflation, sales in 2024 were gradually increasing. In particular, in Kyiv, according to the company’s internal research, among buyers “a sense of price growth” for food, oddly enough, decreases compared to the years of full -scale invasion.
“Also, along with a decrease in the” feeling of price rise “last year, there was a general decline in prices for goods, that is, clients began to pay less attention to prices than before,” the store’s press service added.
In turn, the ATB network said that inflation is negatively infused on consumer demand, as it leads to a decrease in purchasing power, however, on the other hand, has a stimulating effect on turnover. Consumers buy the goods they need today, because the price of them is constantly increasing.
Raising alcohol prices
Another misery was not awaited from where they were not expected: in the same ATB it is noted that in early 2025, vodka, which kept prices for the last two years, began to rise. Among the reasons are the increase in the cost of raw materials and electricity. In total, since December 2024, the category of a wine-benefit group of goods has grown up to 50%.
Product group
Among the rest of the drinks, the most rise in 2025 is forecast for cocoa, coffee and juices (cherry, apple, orange).
“Giving forecasts for 2025, it should be noted that the majority of products will remain at the current level, however, of course, in the current environment, we do not exclude rise in prices, and it will depend on many factors, including weather conditions, logistics costs. , as well as the general situation in the country, in energy and more, ”the ATB said.
Prices, unfortunately, will continue to grow due to the combination of low crop factors, increasing production costs and tariffs and various economic challenges related to war. The agencies and experts expect that the situation may stabilize in the second half of the year. But by that time it is necessary to survive, so Ukrainians will have to change their eating habits in order to better cope with pressure on finances, which are already singing romances.
Product prices in Ukraine increased by an average of 14.1%for 2024. Vegetables, dairy products and sunflower oil have risen the most.
Recall that in November 2024 consumer prices in Ukraine increased by 11.2%. Product inflation accelerated up to 14.3%.
In October 2024, egg prices were jumped by 60%. Manufacturers argue this increase in feed prices, energy and more.
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