Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries will cause gasoline shortages and macroeconomic instability – ISW

Attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian oil refineries could lead to a gasoline shortage across Russia, which will likely cause inflation to rise and exacerbate macroeconomic instability. This is reported by UNN with reference to an analytical report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

DetailsISW analysts, in their report, refer to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which reported on August 28 that units of the Security Service of Ukraine and Special Operations Forces struck the Kuibyshev oil refinery in the Samara region with drones. This enterprise produces gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil, and solvents, with a processing volume of seven million tons per year.

Also, the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine and the Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Afipsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar Krai. It has a production capacity of 6.25 million tons of oil per year and plays a vital role in supplying fuel to the Russian military.

Both refineries are key to the Russian military industry.

The Russian government announced on August 27 that it would extend the ban on gasoline exports, which was supposed to end on August 31, until September 30 for gasoline producers and until October 31 for non-producers, in an attempt to stabilize the domestic fuel market.

It is noted that Russia has periodically resorted to such measures since 2022, but recent strikes on oil refineries have exacerbated the gasoline shortage and caused a surge in its prices.

According to ISW analysts, this gasoline shortage and price spikes will likely lead to increased consumer spending, increased business costs across all sectors, and higher inflationary expectations, thereby pushing overall inflation upward by increasing both direct and indirect costs throughout the economy and creating further macroeconomic instability.

Recall

In many Russian cities and regions, a fuel shortage is observed after Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries. Authorities are introducing fuel rationing, prices are rising, and drivers are queuing for kilometers.

Earlier it was reported that Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries disrupted the operation of at least 17% of Russia’s oil refining capacity, causing a gasoline shortage. Strikes on facilities in Novoshakhtinsk, Ust-Luga, and the Druzhba pipeline are a response to Russia’s aggression.

Ministry of Defense on attacks on Russian oil refineries: in certain regions, gasoline and diesel are issued by coupons28.08.25, 12:39 • 2748 views