“Forbes Ukraine analyzed the analytical study “Road Map of Polish-Ukrainian Negotiations in the EU accession process” and formulated 10 challenges that Ukraine will have to overcome on the way to membership in the European Union. In 2024, de jure negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union began. Actual negotiations should begin with the opening of six negotiating clusters. Ambitious goal of Ukraine is to open […]”, – WRITE: Businessua.com.ua
Forbes Ukraine analyzed the analytical research “Road Map of Polish-Ukrainian Negotiations in the Process of Ukraine’s Entry in the EU” and formulated 10 challenges that Ukraine will have to overcome on the way to membership in the European Union.
In 2024, de jure negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union began. Actual negotiations should begin with the opening of six negotiating clusters.
Ambitious goal of Ukraine is to open five to six clusters Already in 2025, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during the January visit to Warsaw. Kyiv’s expectations are related, in particular, to the chairmanship of the EU Council of two friendly countries.
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In the first half of 2025, Ukraine hopes to open two or three negotiating clusters for the presidency of Poland in the EU. In the second, for the presidency of Denmark, there are three more.
Ukraine’s membership in the EU will help Poland to reach two fundamental values - greater security and more prosperity, writes Jan Trushchinsky, the main negotiator of Poland in the negotiations on the EU, which took place in 2004.
“30 years ago, Poland’s accession to the EU responded to the geostrategic and geo -economic interests of Germany,” he said. “Today, similar considerations should determine Poland’s position on Ukraine’s accession.”
Kushinsky’s words are part of the introductory word to a 40-page analytical research “Road map of the Polish-Ukrainian talks in the process of Ukraine’s accession to the EU”, which was made by the Batoria Foundation. Together with ten Ukrainian and Polish researchers, Kushchinsky analyzed the challenges and advantages of each of the six negotiating clusters.
The study is available for Forbes Ukraine. Here are 10 key challenges of Ukraine on the way to the EU.
Fundamentals cluster callsFundamentals cluster is the most important in negotiations. It opens the first and closes the latter. It concerns the quality of democratic institutions, the rule of law, transparency of power and public procurement. Success in this cluster guarantees the success of all negotiations. But there are at least three calls.
The impact of war on reform
In war, it is impossible to ensure the full independence of many institutions, and the state will remain centralized and militarized. The EU will take into account these features in the evaluation of Ukraine’s progress, but they will create tensions and can be used by opponents of the EU extension.
Balkan Scenario
Negative experience Western Balkans: The absence of a clear time horizon and prospects for the benefit of the demotivation of political elites to make reforms, especially in the area of the rule of law.
To avoid this scenario, a clear prospect of benefits for Ukraine is needed. The consistent implementation of reforms should be accompanied by the next stage of integration with the EU so that Ukrainian society has its positive consequences.
Basicity of benchmarks
On some issues, the Fundamentals cluster does not contain clear laws that a candidate country has to implement. Instead, the EU develops targets for each country. Often they are vaguely formulated, such as “visible progress”.
The fuzzy wording can lead to ambiguous interpretation and political impact on reforms. This problem was also faced by Western Balkan countries.
Calls cluster “Inland Market”The cluster focuses on the economic integration and functioning of four key freedoms of the EU internal market: the movement of goods, services, capital and labor.
The advantage of the implementation of the cluster will be unlimited access of Ukrainian exports to the EU market, the integration of Ukrainian producers into the EU value added chains.
However, there are at least two calls.
New Discussion on Ukraine Access to the EU Market
In June 2025, the Autonomous Trade Preferences (ATP), introduced by the EU after the start of a full-scale invasion, ends. They meant complete liberalization of trade and duty -free access to the EU markets for all Ukrainian goods.
Upon completion of the ATP, the discussion on Ukraine’s full access to the EU’s single market will begin again.
The challenge is to find the right balance between market discovery for Ukrainian products and providing EU producers for enough time to adapt.
Two problematic freedoms
The challenge for Ukraine may be the adoption of European rules in the field of financial services and ensuring the freedom of movement of capital through national borders.
The most sensitive issue will be labor mobility, in particular due to demographic problems.
After joining the EU in 2004, 6.6% of Poland’s population moved to the “old EU Member States” in search of a better work. In the case of Ukraine, you can expect such or more outflow of labor after joining the EU.
Cluster “Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion Policy”Potentially – the most conflict cluster in relations with Poland. There are three calls.
Competition
Ukraine is a great competitor for EU agricultural producers, especially for soybean, sunflower, corn, potatoes and cabbage seeds.
At the same time, the structures of agriculture of Ukraine and Poland differ. In Ukraine, 85% of agricultural production accounts for agricultural crops, only 15% for animal husbandry. In Poland – 49% by 51%. The cereal market is the only area of competition between Ukrainian and Polish producers.
Ukraine’s participation in joint agrarian policy (EU SAP)
Ukraine’s participation in SAP is potentially one of the most difficult issues of negotiations. The cost of Ukraine’s accession to the SAP is considered as a problem through the funds necessary for financing direct payments to Ukrainian farmers and the development of rural development funds in K Rainy.
According to the EU Council, according to the current SAP rules, it can cost the EU € 96.5 billion over seven years, which will reduce subsidies for current EU members by 20%.
Poland – in the five largest beneficiaries of the SAP, about 40% of income is received by Polish agriculture from the SAP.
Ukraine’s participation in the SAP can reduce Poland funding and reduce the income of Polish farmers. Therefore, it is possible that Ukraine will not have full access to the SAP funds for some time after joining the EU – just like Poland once.
Reduction of Poland’s Funding from the Cohesion Fund
Cohesion Fund provides support for Member States with GDP per capita below 90% of the EU average. Poland has an indicator of 80% and is the largest beneficiary of cohesion policy in 2021-2027.
Ukraine’s GDP per capita is only 23% of the EU average. Ukraine’s accession to the EU can lead to reducing the funding of cohesion policy for Poland and potentially turning it from Net-Benfection on net donor.
The calls of other clustersThe main call of the Green Agenda cluster – Increasing the generating capacity of renewable energy sources in Ukraine. EU goal to increase the share RES In EU energy consumption – up to 42.5% by 2030. The purpose of Ukraine is 27%. But it will also be difficult to achieve a less ambitious goal, since on the eve of a full -scale invasion, the share of RES in Ukrainian consumption was less than 11%.
Call cluster “Competitiveness and Inclusive Development” – Ukraine will have to control EU Eastern border. In 2004, the Polish and Ukrainian Customs Service will have to control the flow of counterfeits, smuggling and piracy into the EU after joining the EU.
The least problematic is the last cluster “Foreign Policy”. The most important and compatible mutual interests of Poland and Ukraine are the spheres of security and defense. This excludes competition and opens a window for cooperation.
The Batoria Foundation Research was implemented with the support of Open Society Foundations.
The project was worked on the project by Jan Trushchinsky (European Direct Polska, Conference of Poland Ambassadors, Exampted by Government in Negotiations on Polish Membership in the EU), Anna Ackermann (Center for Ecological Initiatives “Ecodia”), Alexander Bulan (Ukrainian Center of European Policy), Maria Zolkina. , Shimon Cardas (ECFR, Warsaw University), Bartolomay Novak (Academy of Finance and Business Vitsula), Yana Okhrimenko (CES), Jan Stsheletsky, Marek Vonsinsky (both of the Polish Economic Institute), Dmitry Shulga (Renaissance International Fund).
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