“Two bears in one den.” The egos of Putin and Trump will inevitably collide, the main bargaining will not be for territories – Yakovin

Inauguration [Дональда Трампа] will take place on January 20, in a month and a half. By approximately the third anniversary of the beginning of the great war, in Trump’s view, Moscow and Kyiv should somehow reconcile. I think that they will get from Washington, from the new American administration a concrete proposal or even maybe an ultimatum, like you and you have to do such and such, otherwise it will hurt you so and so if you don’t do It will be a demand, it will be an ultimatum, not just an offer.

Why is it important for Trump to end this war? He swore that he would finish it on the first day. Of course, everyone understands the exaggeration, but if literally in the first few months he does not manage to achieve any significant success, he will no longer be taken seriously in the world.

Most likely, Trump will roll out [російському диктатору Володимиру] Putin and [президенту України Володимиру] Zelensky’s demand to stop hostilities on the front line and freeze the conflict immediately. That is, where the front line passes, it should remain there for a very long time.

For Russia, a freeze on the current front line is generally a defeat. Why? Because Putin’s main task is the capture of Kyiv and the destruction of Ukraine as a state. In the extreme case, he would like to reach the Dnipro River, to get under his control the entire left-bank Ukraine and the Odesa region. It is very important for him to deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and gain control over Odesa.

Therefore, Putin does not want to stop, freeze the conflict, it is not profitable for him now. That is why, I think, the Kremlin announced that there was no conversation with Donald Trump, that the publication in the media about the telephone conversations is pure fiction and simply false information. About this [прессекретар диктатора Дмитро] Peskov said. That is, they do not want to admit that Trump is starting to impose some conditions on Putin.

It is important for Putin to show that if there will be some kind of agreement, some kind of freeze, it will not be because of Trump’s demands, not because of what Trump said: everyone has run off in different directions.

Putin wants to show that we allegedly achieved what we wanted, and we ourselves decided that now we are stopping. He does not want to appear in the eyes of his minions, so to speak, as Trump’s six, a person who carries out Washington’s orders. Since you and I naturally believe the Washington Post much more than Peskov, it is reasonable to assume that the conversation between Trump and Putin took place after all.

I think that there will definitely be a moment in the plot of negotiations between Russia and the United States when Vladimir Putin’s boundless desire to destroy and seize Ukraine will run into Trump’s sincere desire to prove to everyone, to the whole world, that he can solve problems any tasks, maybe “to reconcile Ukraine” and Russia, and that he is cooler than everyone in the world, including Vladimir Putin, naturally, in particular, both for him and for Putin, and for the fact that he will still follow Trump’s instructions, and not the other way around.

When Trump realizes that it is useless to talk with Putin, that Putin is another General Suleimani, who has his own agenda, everything else is up to him, that’s when, I think, Trump will provide Ukraine with both weapons and permission to use this weapon. And he will do it not because he loves Ukraine very much, but because he is annoyed by those who are unable to conclude agreements with him, with Trump, and do not allow him to conclude these agreements.

Trump considers himself a master of negotiations, a master of concluding various agreements, and here is someone who insults him in this sense, does not allow him to realize it, that person is very painful and unpleasant for Trump. And Trump will take revenge on this person.

And the candidacy of such a person is Vladimir Putin, because everything now indicates that Putin will not have any serious agreement with Trump, although, you know, nothing can be ruled out, because Donald Trump is a completely unpredictable character. He may or may not agree.

But still, I think Putin decided during his time in power that he is already the greatest ruler on the planet, and for all time, that there is no one cooler. As he says: after the death of Gandhi, he has no one to talk to. Putin considers himself the greatest of the greatest politicians of all times and nations, and what does Trump have to do with him?

Trump considers himself exactly the same. And in this analysis, I am not looking at the core interests of the US or the Russian Federation – neither of those matters. Only one person’s ego, another person’s ego matters. These two egos will inevitably collide at some stage, because, as they say, two bears cannot live in the same den, they will definitely have to find out which of them is the main bear. And I think that after all, Trump will be more powerful in this sense.

Russia has one more reason to send Trump away with his peace initiatives at this point — the Kursk region.

Even in theory, Putin cannot imagine, primarily for himself, that even one square centimeter of internationally recognized Russian territory would remain under the control of Ukraine, or rather Zelenskyi. Because if, for example, Suja remains under the Ukrainian flag, it means that Russia has not won the war. And this means that if Russia does not refuse (and she is not will never withdraw from the Kursk region), then Ukraine will never give up its occupied regions. If the map turns out differently, then this whole war can be lost, and all these territorial acquisitions, which Putin now wants to ascribe to himself, can be won back.

The Kursk region under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a huge problem for the Kremlin, which prevents it from launching its most important settlement argument, which is called “facts on the ground”. And that is why Russia’s entire negotiating strategy is collapsing due to the presence of Ukrainian troops on Russian territory.

In the next few months, I think, as a result of this, the Russian Federation will throw everything it has at Suja, because regaining control over this city is a fundamental task of the Kremlin. I even think that they can withdraw from the offensive in Donbas for a while, slow down this matter, simply for the sake of destroying the Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region.

Further [повернемося] to the issue of the implementation of the peace plan [Трампом]. The main trade will be, in my opinion, not around the territory, not around who will receive what and for what period. No, the main trade will be around sanctions.

The fact is that the Russian economy is collapsing right before our eyes. If the sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation are not lifted, it will be impossible to save this economy, and Russia will lose the war simply because of the complete collapse of its economy and its industrial capabilities. In this sense, I think it is very, very important that in any truce it is written that sanctions will be lifted only in exchange for the return of Ukrainian territories.

Trump said that, in principle, he does not like sanctions as a tool, that he does not like them. Therefore, one can imagine a situation in which sanctions against Russia will be lifted under Trump. Unfortunately, it’s true, you have to look at things realistically. But I think Trump needs to be convinced, probably, that he can get almost anything from Putin for the lifting of sanctions, because sanctions are the most important trump card in the hands of Trump, in the hands of the USA. And you can’t give away this trump card just like that, you have to exchange it for something incredibly valuable.